Stan,

Sadly, 2008 doesn’t look like it will shape up any better with the prospect of a second President Clinton being elected. God help us!

i think you are bang on – but the truth is market cycles come and go – it is a normal part of capatalism.

the problem is people get greedy and forget.

as to global warming – it appears from history that humanity only makes changes when the crisis is at its tipping point – maybe we are not there yet…

….and what are the alternates?The moon is still inhospitable and Paris is too expensive!

forget the global warming nonsense
it’s been going on since the begining of time. why is it called
Greenland? how where the fingerlakes formed in newyork.

I am totally on board with you buddy, and now the total loss of any balance of power in the middle east,India/Pak with nuclear arsenals and their strained relationship…..eeeekkkss….it’s a matter of time before a radical govern pulls the plug!! And let’s face it the White House lost it’s way many many years ago, so we’re on this raft with just one ore going in circles!

Scared here too and usually, like you, walking around with a big smile…not now…scared
crapless”!!

I think that all of our current leaders on both sides of the aisle are working diligently at helping Americans to understand that as politicians; they personally had nothing to do with this mess. “Leave George Bush alone to run things for even 8 years, and look what he has done.”

And as Alan Greenspan, the world’s smartest financial mind put it so eloquently, “I just didn’t see it coming. Would you like to buy a book?”

As we used to say about Bethel Alaska, “It’s not the end of the world, but you can certainly see it from there.”

A friend of mine had a great analogy for the real estate bubble which is currently bursting. He compared the artificial inflation of our real estate through extremely low interest rates a few years ago to interfering with natural selection. If our economy is a herd of sheep, and problems are a wolf, natural selection would dictate that the wolf would eat the weakest link and frolic happily back into the forest. What lowering the interest rate did, was effectively shoot down the wolf as he was about to pounce. Now the retarded, slow, undesirable sheep has reproduced and spread its unwanted genes all over the herd, giving rise to lots of new problems. My opinion? As cruel as it may sound, we need a pack of wolves to come in and let natural selection take its course (a recession).

You forgot to mention the biggest possible disaster of all…Hillary could become President !!!!

Yes, as usual the pendulum has swung and we are facing a tough period. Remember, the falling dollar makes our products (and we have lots of products) very attractive to the rest of the world. Our account deficit will rise further as we slowly ramp up production, and we will, but over time the deficit will fall. Did anyone really think we could continue to purchase goods and services throughout the world with such a large trade deficit and maintain the value of the dollar? Math is still math and this is simply the correction taking place.

OK, you asked for it. I think it’s a great time to have cash and credit because there are some serious bargains to be had in Real Estate. I think the rest of the world will need to use their dollars, which are too abundant and shrinking in value, to buy something besides $100/barrel oil and Boeing jets and that something will be US corporations and real estate. The very banks that are now suffering at the hands of domestic money managers look pretty good to foreign investors at their current levels. Fixed assets like US real estate are also a decent safehaven for dollars declining in value. Arab, European, Asian and even Canadian investors will all become larger stake holders in this great American experiment. The Global Capitalism that we have historically gone to war to promote and enable will serve to difuse ownership of America further, thereby lowering the risk of terrorism on our soil as those who have a stake in our country will not want to destroy it.

Excellent commentary. If it makes you feel any better, I used to feel the same as you do now—-you look around and realize our entire economy is based on hype and is really nothing more than a house of cards. HOWEVER, over time I have learned that it really doesn’t matter how indebted we are or how abysmal our real economy is—-our leaders will always find a way to inflate something to keep it going. At the end of the day, the U.S. is bankrupt, both morally and financially. However, since most are willing to sell their own mothers on the street for a dollar, and will lie, cheat, and steal in order to take from others, we really shouldn’t worry that it will come to an end anytime soon. Americans are greedy, self-righteous, and self-promoting with a government well-versed in hyperbole and saying whatever it takes to keep things moving. Sometimes the best thing an intelligent person should do in this economy is throw away the financial statements and just jump on for the ride—if our politicians and business leaders do not understand accounting 101, why should we bother with it. Rhetoric 101 is much more valuable in our economy than business and accounting ever will be.

According to today’s Chicago Tribune, there’s a helium shortage. We’re being robbed of laughter.

I think you should turn off your news channels — TV and the Web. Learned long ago to not worry about the things you can’t control and concentrate on the things you can. If everyone thinks like that and everyone works hard, then we’ll see better days. Plus — it’s only money. Be grateful for your good health. Keep those blog entries coming… I enjoy them, even though I disagreed with the naming of your Sun Tzu book. Thomas

Hey, I’ve just got to say something here. I don’t want my readers to think, just because I love to publish whatever you guys are thinking at any given time, that I agree with everything you say. No, I’m not specifically talking about those of you who periodically remind me that I’m a moron. I’m referring to those who are beginning to take random potshots at Hillary Clinton and her loyal husband, the former President of these great United States. As far as I’m concerned, a frog in a sweatsuit would have done a better job than the current occupant of that office, and if the Democrats put up a yak as a candidate it will have my vote. Now, don’t get all screechy and mud-slingy on me, you guys. But given all that’s going on in this world, and in this country, I think snarky jabs at Mrs. Clinton and her spouse may not be as helpful and amusing as they used to be, if indeed they ever were. Of course, it depends on what your definition of “were” was.

All you conservatives need to suck-it-up. This is part of the plan. Don’t you recall that you’ve been voting Republican for the last 40+ years in order to “get even” with “those people”? Hang on, the Republican just need is a little more time!

DIVERSIFY. I am moving some of my savings into Euros and other currencies. Did you know that the Indian Rupee and the Thai Bhat are the best performing currencies right now? Diversification not only applied to the 401k account but also to savings int other currencies and assets.

It’s all in REVELATIONS People! Wake up and realize that these things are SUPPOSED to come to pass!

To Tom in Wilmington, do you really think Hillary could possibly be as bad as George II? Almost impossible!

If sentiment continues to worsen I’ll become a buyer of dollars and sell gold/euros, just when most of you chicken littles are selling your dollars and stocks at the bottom. History is full of crises that people felt signaled the end of the world, usually the best of times to invest! But not yet, the real hysteria hasn’t started yet, it’s just beginning. When the average Joe starts buying MRE’s and stocking up on gold and guns that will signal the bottom in the dollar/US investments and a top in gold/euros. My guess is 1.80 on the Euro and 1700 gold, then start shorting the hell out of them while everyone else is digging bunkers!

Wrt Hillary, now you have my respect.

Dude, it’s pretty simple. There isnt enough money in the banking system to give every their deposits, if everyone chose to cash them out. Same with the stock marke. The average capitalistic economy is nothing more than smoke and mirrors. Yet it works better than all the alternatives. Stay away from coffee and get some sleep. The world will be just fine.

And what about 9 trillion of US debt? At 400 billion a year in interest-only payments, and with the US Treasury only open for business 200 working days a year, that means borrowing 2 billion a day, or 4 million dollars every minute of the eight hour working day!! And the US has a zero savings rate! Wait til the rest of the world gets fed up with buying paper that depreciates daily!

Bing, I think you’re only scratching the surface, and I don’t think 2008 is going to be a safe haven. My call? 2007 will go down in history as the year the new Great Depression started.

Bing, I hate to add another woe to your long list. But if you haven’t been tracking the EIA’s production statistics, Saudi Arabia has gone into declining oil production. So enjoy the $100 oil while it’s still so cheap!

The free party is over, we are about to pay the price for the party. There is only one way to get out of this mess and it to get back to our roots, our constitution. It the freedoms, the checks and balances of the constitution that made us a great nation. There is only one presidential candidate that advocates this. See RonPaul2008.com. This maybe our last chance!

Mark from Pompano Beach, Florida apparently has been asleep for the past seven years (either that or he was born without a brain). Mark (whoever your are), no one could be as big a disaster as the current moron that we have in the White House. His name is George W. Bush in case you need to be updated.

The truth is, this has all happened before. The global warming thing… eh… we have to work on that. However with the rest of it, WE ARE IN A RECESSION! It doesn’t matter if the Feds, the government, or who ever don’t want to “admit” it. You don’t have to be Einstein to see it with your own eyes. The housing market is trashed, prices of EVERYTHING is going up, and the stock market is all kinds of wonky. So the deal is this, I agree with guy that says “turn of your TV, burn the news papers,…” and what not, because our future is in the hands of rich investors, lobbiests, and special interest groups. Sure we are probably going to eminently crash and burn, but the way I see it, it’s time to press the reset button anyway.

Our biofuels come mostly from sugar cane which has nothing to do with the rain forests. Sugar cane is mostly planted in southeastern Brazil. The bio fuels, contrary to what you are suggesting, are helpful to reduce global warming because of its ineherent CO2 cycle, quite the opposite to the petroleum cycle, that the USA burns in millions of barrels daily.

“why is it called
Greenland? how where the fingerlakes formed in newyork.”

Duh – it’s called Greenland to encourage its citizens to migrate there. Their other choice was Iceland. Where would you go? It’s not cause “once upon a time it was green”. duh.

2007 isn’t all bad. The first six months saw a prosperous stock market rise, that will be sorely missed in 2008. 2008 will see the housing market get worse and the stock portfolio profits won’t be there to pad the losses from the banks writeoffs. And if oil stays this high – or worse, gets higher- the consumer is going to have to cut back on spending for the first time since 2001. Credit card debts can turn nto a crisis as big as the mortgage mess.

Bing, you’ve got to look on the other side. Global warming, no problem, it was always too cold in winter in the NE and this may just open the NE passage. Going to use less petro to keep warm, anyhow. Higher sea level. What’s a couple of feet going to do anyways. Subprime mess. Wall street created it, now they going to pay. Ol’ Uncle Sam isn’t going to let millions of people loose the homes or their jobs.

Hey Bing,

You forgot about all the boomers retiring, and the monsterous numbers of those retiring folk depending on a system (Social Security, Medicaid) that will be dependent upon the increasingly small numbers of GenXers and like folk to pay into the system. Never mind that those young folk are so saddled with student loan debt that they won’t be able to afford to exist, let alone fund SS.

Bing – It’s going to get ugly when the talking heads on TV finally figure out what you said. I would recommend that you read Jim Rogers recent speech. Get out of the US$!

I’ve been an economist/analyst for a couple of decades, and for most of that time we modeled 2.5% econ growth worldwide. Now it’s 4-5%. Hundreds of millions are lifting themselves from poverty (and are allowed to do so by more rational govts). The $ declines partly because the rest of the world is more competitive, and whatever one thinks of Republicans, their next candidate won’t be named “Bush.” Yes, things move in cycles (the climate as well).

Don’t forget all those baby boomers are starting to retire. Where is the money to pay SS and Medicare? Who is going to work?

This sentiment might make you feel a little better:

During a typical cycle, when people are bullish and supremely confident (overconfident) and throwing money at overvalued stocks, and real estate, and you can’t lose and we’re all gonna be rich man!! That is in fact, when you indeed should be nervous.

When people are leery, and cash goes to the sideline, and oil this and Iran that, and polar ice caps, etc., creeps into the collective mindset, then you might actually be looking at an opportunity…smart money moves in when ‘the herd’ get an upset stomach.

I read the news too much. I worry about oil, but I drive a Toyota Corolla with 40mpg. I worry about the dollar, but I haven’t seen my grocery bill go up, except for milk.

The US has a very underrated economy. Don’t believe what you read in the news. There’s no single country in the world that has the diverse economy that America does. The falling dollar is almost exclusively due to the sheer size of imported oil. If oil wasn’t an issue, the dollar would be stronger. In the next coming years, cars will be forced to be more fuel efficient, there will be alternative energy sources, and we can let the Middle East blow themselves up.

Furthermore, currency valuation is as silly and subjective as oil prices. People sell American bonds because the value of the dollar is going down, but the value of the dollar is going down because people are selling their American bonds. It has nothing to do with economics or supply and demand. All it amounts to is a large number of European investors short-selling our currency which inevitibly increases the value of theirs. It’s easy to make yourselves look good by making someone else look bad.

If an investor takes a good look at the economy that our currency backs, the dollar would be a lot stronger than it is. Our economy is fine.

There is absolutely nothing you can do about global warming, it will be solved anyway with new science and technology in the years to come.

Immigration, demographics and declines in birthrates are much bigger problems for the West.

And if you are so negative about the US economy and the dollar, why don’t you short US stocks and make a fortune?!

Simply put…look around…we’re in big, big trouble!

Aren’t there more than two families that could produce a person able to run this country? There has been either a Bush or Clinton running the country since 1988. Maybe it’s time to diversify the presidency.

I don’t know much about money matters but do know a little about biology and specifically honeybees…not only are the bees in trouble but of greater concern are the insects in gereral….when was the last time you had to clean bug splats off your windshield. It appears that all this economic activity in the agriculture sector embracing new environmentally unfriendly GMO’s among other things is finally doing us in. Now you have something tangible to worry about.

Hey Bing

Your outlook is very near to the reality of things to come in the near future, as the United States and Europe try to standardize the world in a global economy the dumb geniuses that are the driving force behind the global economy failed to take one thing into consideration, and that is the rest of the world will not be as thankful and appreciative of their newly found fortune, and they won’t use it wisely or as effectively. This in turn will start a chain reaction of events that will cause nations to have no choice but to enact war amongst one another when a compromise cannot be reached. At that point the NATO Alliance and the United Nations will be a group of nobodies who will not have any influence on the rest of the world. God help us all, for the end is coming.

Bing,

I think most commentators missed your most insightful line:

“I mean, sometimes I hide behind a mask of skepticism, even cynicism when I have nothing intelligent to offer.”

Let me ask you one question: How many times has the world actually ended?

Calling 2008 an area of relative comfort might be a mistake. It might as well be a the year when the pain will actually start. 2008 is election year. And no government would want to end their term on a low note. So even if it takes another 1% cut, the Fed (of course influenced by the govt) would do it. That their will be a recession is getting obvious by the day now. Of all the housing troubles in any country since forever, 97% led to recessions of varying lengths. But, I can bet that nothing would happen before the next elections. In fact, I won’t be surprised to see the markets scale new highs as we get closer to the elections. but after we have a new president, things could get, umm, painful

Problem is you listen to the news too much and the negativity and biast information that comes along with it. To make you feel better, global warming is a scam so don’t worry about that. Second, the stock market is still the highest it has ever been in history even with the dip in the last couple of days. And third, if you were smart, you wouldn’t have a debt crisis because you bought too much crap you couldn’t afford. Good luck to you.

You forgot to mention the 800lb Gorilla in the room: 9/11
The case is pretty much a slam dunk now that there were explosives in all three WTC buildings that fell on 9/11. In case you haven’t heard the evidence ( which isn’t surprising given the media blackout ), check out the video of architect Richard Gage at http://www.ae911truth.org, or the presentations by Steven Jones. 9/11 Revisited at http://www.911revisited.com/ also sums it up well.

Solutions to these problems (and more) you speak of are so easily resolved. Unfortunately, the resolutions are so enshrouded by politics and capitalistic greed they stand little to no chance of improvement resulting in a worse world for our children and childrens-children (if they are allowed THAT chance).

Bing,

You have got it all wrong. It isn’t the world that is ending, AMERICA is!!!! Stop being big America and America is all that. The sinking of America doesn’t necessarily translate into “the whole world is sinking.” The world might be affected somehow, but the world is not going to end just because America is f___ed up.

And why I think America is f___ed up?

Well, look at how other places are doing now? Most countries are sprinting going ahead of the US.

And all the while, Americans are as lazy as ever. Look at how people work here, and how they demand raises. That’s why manufacturers move their production to other countries in the first place, helping other countries to grow ahead of the US.

Then you have morons all over this country living beyond their means. Of course things would get more and more expensive because of simple demand and supply rules.

And when everyone is putting TVs, cars, designer clothing, etc., onto their credit cards, and buying too much house, guess what?

Welcome to subprime crisis and credit (well, that’s a very nice word for DEBT) problem.

America is going to go WAY down, and I think it truly deserves it.

Don’t forget about…

The Iran War, cira winter 2007 – 2008.
US Government is essentially bankrupt.

There are basically only TWO motivational factors for humans; these are GREED and FEAR. One can figure almost anything out from this point. Our comeuppance is inevitable – it is merely a question of WHEN.

Dudes, I’m basically publishing just about everything that’s coming across the transom here, because there are so many of you lobbing in your theories, hopes, fears, suspicions and opinions. But I’ll just say it one more time: Some of you I agree with… some of you I don’t… and some of you? Well, good luck to ya. Keep those cards and letters comin’ in!

And the value of our homes.
This is the part the needs to be avoided going forward. Prior to the latest 20-year boom, housing never was a growth investment; it tracked inflation. Shiller and every other reputable source of information backs this up (i.e., don’t believe the realtors). Various lending practices and ridiculously low federal reserve interest rates allowed housing to get overinflated to the point where people entering the market couldn’t afford entry level homes without using some outlandish mortgage vehicle.
As can be seen with the current collapse… that’s not a situation that can be sustained. The economy is likely already gone this time… hopefully the country (or the 10 important people that make policy decisions anyways) learns the lesson, and puts checks in place to prevent lenders/investors/whoever from warping housing from a place to live to an un-sustainable “growth” market.
Housing can NOT increase in value faster than salaries for more than a very brief period of time. If it appears to be doing so, time to start shorting it.

I understand that it has been en vogue for conservatives to knock on the Clintons, but it seems slightly empty. Is Hilary really that big of a threat? How could she do any worse than Dubya. I don’t really like her, and hope there is a better option in 2008, but still don’t quite get all of the hatred. Please explain with some substantiation. Thanks.

Geez . . . and to think that sometimes I felt so alone in seeing all of this. I’m not that young anymore, and I have never seen the overall scenario look any bleaker than it does right now. And yet, I know that it is going to get worse. What’s coming is nothing less than an enforced radical change in lifestyle. We will have no choice in the matter. Recession? HA! Try the big D word. Globally.

Truly, I am not normally an Armageddon-believing survivalist, but y’all better find a bicycle and get in some practice miles, and learn how to grow your own food. Then, just hang on to somebody real tight.

The wild card IMO is when\if we hit global peak oil\natural gas production or run out of other resources such as fresh water (like whats happening in Australia where i live). Our Earth is limited and yet we want to keep growing forever. We have long exceeded the carrying capacity of our planet. IMO either we volentarily slow down and reduce our population and consumption in a humain and orderly way or we let nature handle it (like what happened on Easter Island).

But its important not to be too pessimistic since the sun will still rise each day a hundered years from now. I’m thinking long term people

All these posts can be described in a few words FEAR, SCARED and give me SECURITY
I think were in a period of lesson learning like ag, canad said “it appears from history that humanity only makes changes when the crisis is at its tipping point” AND we ARE getting very close to a tipping point

I think the world is what we make it and I personally have started a business online called VisionBedding.com in the good ole USA and sales are growing!!
Global warming is real and I think in the long run it will bring us all together, because this may be the first time in history the WHOLE world has the same problem… lets be leaders not whiners!!!

The really scary thing that you didn’t mention was the Social Security/Medicare boogey man peaking out of the closet. This wouldn’t be nearly as scary except that there isn’t a politician running for office that has the nerve to tell the American people that this boogey man will force us to make some serious sacrifices or our children will never experience the standard of living we have become accustomed to.

It doesn’t help that we’re going to waste half a trillion dollars (or more) in Iraq and get absolutely nothing for it but bereaved families and thousands of permanently disabled heroes who will need our support and care. That money would have gone a long way towards softening the blow that retiring baby boomers represent.

When my parents’ generation faced retirement they, typically, owned their own home and had worked for the same company most of their lives, often with company-sponsored retirement benefits. Nowadays, my generation keeps financing away their home equity and keeping the same job for more than ten years is the rarity now. This adds up to less financial security when we retire (no home equity remaining to lean on in hard times or to pass to our children). Who’s going to buy the products of all the American companies that have outsourced all of our jobs overseas?

If you ask me, this is the real “family values” discussion we need to be having right now: are we mortgaging our children’s future? The sooner we address this issue, the less of a catastrophe it will be.

Oh, and by the way, what about the top 1% of wage earners in this country garnering 70% of Bush’s tax cuts? Like they really need it!! The wealthy people in this country know what’s going on and are just trying to grab everything they can before it all goes to hell in a hand basket. When that happens, the value of the dollar today is going to look pretty damn good.

Since the Mayan Calender has essentially told Humanity that the End of Days is Dec 12, 2012 it should come as no surprise to any seriously-minded cynic that the feelings of unease and anxiety are ratcheting up as we near that date. I have decided to take advantage of the current credit crisis by buying bonds that mature close to that date for pennies on the dollar in order to have myself a good ole fashioned conflagration partay right as we hit The End. We all must go at some point so I would like to thank the Mayans for giving me the heads-up on when my – Our – day will come. Laissez les bontemps rouller!!!

Wow I thought I was the only one who was thinking doom and gloom! Stock Market: Extremely Volitile! I can’t remember before 2001 that there were so may UPS and DOWNS in the market! Somebody breathes wrong now and the DOW is down 400 PTS!!! Better get used ti $3.00+ Gas! Remember people.. YOUR 401K and LIFE IS TIED TO THIS LITTLE MACHINE called WALLSTREET! I am a little concerned TO SAY THE LEAST! Better start STOCKPILING GOLD AND GUNS!!! At least Gold spends worldwide!!

To John Amerine,

For people whose Head rule their Heart, FEAR and GREED run the World.

But for people whose Heart rule their Head, LOVE is a bigger motivator.

There are certainly many serious issues staring down the American people right now, though nothing that can not be over come. The main problem seems to be that as a country we have over-extended ourselves, not that different than how a corporation may over-extend itself during a growth cycle. The United States post-WWII experienced tremendous growth and its stature in the world was unmatched so naturally we positioned ourselves as we saw fit. The problem now is with smaller more nimble countries entering the fray with far superior growth, the United States will no longer recieve the foreign investment it once did. As a country we need to transition from growth to a more mature positioning. This means cutting excess costs and streamlinging the programs that we do keep. I have watched every debate and it seems every candiate simply offers new programs recquiring more money to “fix” our problems. The problem is that we got into this mess by spending money we don’t have. The only candidate that seems to understand this country needs to seriously re-evaluate what Washington’s role should be in our lives and what our country’s role in the world should be is Ron Paul. There is no money left in Social Security and our military is worn down. If our government is to keep its promises to the people it told it would provide various social services to then we need to cut costs elsewhere. It seems to me that an obvious strategy would be to bring home troops we have placed abroad in places like South Korea, Germany & Saudia Arabia and worry about the welfare of the American people. With a weakening US Dollar it isn’t getting any cheaper running those bases abroad. This country requires new ideas and not more of the same.

Don’t worry be happy. Lots of ’stuff’ is always going on. When you mean ‘the world’, what you are saying is ‘MY place in the world’.

Even if all of your worst case scenarios would occur, maybe world human population reduced by 90%, the gene pool would be just fine. On the bright side, with only 10% of the human population around, human influenced ‘climate change’ would not be an issue, and our oil reserves would last much longer!!

All of the folks wanting ’save the world’ really only want to protect the status quo. The world will get along quite nice without 3 billion humans thank you!!

I wonder why Al Gore doesn’t fess up to the fact that driving a hybrid, using solar power, etc. will not compensate for the most damaging of all human activities; reproduction???

I have to disagree with the Global warming theory. I know too many scientist and meteorologists that disagree with the likes of Al “Try to beat my Carbon Footprint” Gore. As for the markets- What was it that Warren Buffet said, ” I get nervous when other people get greedy. I get greedy when other people get nervous. There are too many Bears forcing the hand of the market. This is the greatest buying opportunity we’ve seen in years.

You are correct in your fears. Throught all of history, any currency that was not backed by a commodity like gold, has gone to zero. And the fed reserve(private company) is lowering interest rates to make wall street party. What the wallstreet yuppies are not realizing is that raising the interest rate is pushing down the value of the dollar even further. Cash out of stocks and look into investing in gold. If you dont believe me, simply take 5 minutes and look at gold’s track record. It blows the stock market out of the water! For more information, check out Alex Jones documentary ENDGAME http://www.infowars.com

Politicians don’t know anything. Talking to them is talking to deaf ears. It’s not them that has to clean up the debt mess in the future. They know this that’s why there’s no conservation. It’s the next generation that will fix the problem. The people that follow the rules (the middle class) always get hosed and fleeced. Even the subprime borrowers are getting a hand out meanwhile the person who paid on time fits the bill with higher taxes. We need a war on US soil. Let the criminals fight against the political leaders. We need some anarchy to lower property values.

On the bright side, I’ve decided to schedule a pre-meeting in order to decide who can help solve all these issues. Then I’ll set up meetings to bring these folks together and discuss. I’ll follow that with meetings to document what we’ve concluded. After that, meetings to build actionable roadmaps (gotta talk the talk) for each issue. That should occupy me well until retirement.
By the way, when isn’t the end of the world at hand? I do think we have a big mess to deal with (what’s new), the good news is we are actually aware of it. 2008 looks to me, in all my semi-educated wisdom, like a US recession (there are still tens of $B writoffs due from financial Co’s – look at their ‘level 3′ assets – that are likely to continue unwinding until April or longer.) and China markets crashing from current heights (the expectation has been set for next summer), but ok elsewhere in Europe and Asia as excess liquidity goes looking for assets to invest in. The US debt is likely not as bad as it apears by the way… the US return on assets still outpaces our cost to borrow, so while a national economy is not the same as a business (where 3 to 1 debt/equity ratio is often considered optimal), I’m only moderately concerned.

Who cares? If the world is going to end. There is nothing we can do about it. So live life now and stop worrying about it.

You know, usually I don’t think a president has much influence over economics or environment. But, I think George Bush has somehow proved me wrong. He seems to be taking this ship down with him, just as he did with the companies he founded.

I’m re-arranging those deckchairs as we speak!

dont worry be happy!! IN the land of the blind the one eyed man is king.

Who says we are in serious trouble, I notice that all the experts keep on saying “it could happen” not its going to happen or its happening. The experts keep saying the job marking is bad but then a week after the monthly report come out those experts tell us that the labor market is doing better then what they expect it to be doing, the same with the housing market. Let stop scaring people and get some new experts.

Arctic ice cover at an all-time low…Antarctic sea ice at an all-time high…where was that on “Planet in Peril”????

You are all idiots.

How to take over the Human Genome:
http://scratch.mit.edu/projects/GeneMachine/51835
http://scratch.mit.edu/projects/GeneMachine/20917

How to solve the Energy Crisis:
http://scratch.mit.edu/projects/GeneMachine/34906

How to turn earth into venus:
http://scratch.mit.edu/projects/RangerRick/10274
http://scratch.mit.edu/projects/RangerRick/11273

From Institutional Investor, 2007 All American Research Team cover story, October 2007, page 74.

Ed Hyman, 24 year top economist forecastor on the survey, has this to say:

“the arguments against recession are many: Inflation is easing, bond yields are falling, epxansions typically last a decade, interest rates are low, the dollar is a stimulus, developing economies are booming, wages and prices are under control, profits have been strong, inventories are lean, money is abundant, and the Fed is easing aggressively.”

http://www.isigrp.com

Puffy white clouds floated lazily in the clear blue sky as the bright sun shone above. The only oddity was the unusually quiet sky. The familiar gaggle of birds was not in sight, no raucous noise from the usually garrulous seagulls was present. Standing along the shore line, curious tourists, puzzled residents, and nonchalant sunbathers watched the water receding. There was no sense of alarm of impending danger, mostly a mild curiosity if they thought about it at all. No one had felt the seismic activity occurring deep below the ocean floor. No one envisioned the deadly tsunami rushing toward them just below the surface of the ocean’s calm exterior.

The warning signs were all there if people had known what to look for. But they had not studied previous tsunamis and the warning signs that occur prior to their occurrence. Even though the people were in a region that had experienced prior earthquakes and past tsunamis on a smaller scale, they never dreamed that they would be a part of history repeating itself. They never sensed that their lives were in peril.

Recently, an earthquake occurred deep in the depths of our economy that birthed an approaching tsunami. The signs are obvious to those who know what they should be looking for, but few do. But, those who do know the truth are deliberately hiding it from the masses. The current media moguls are focusing solely on the sub-prime housing market crisis while failing to convey the far reaching repercussions this could have on society as a whole. Our economy is in deep trouble. An economic tsunami is headed our way and yet few are sounding the alarm.

Sometime in mid 2007, as the tectonic plates leading to the earthquake increased their shifting, attention was drawn to what was taking place in the housing industry. According to the experts, “the housing bubble burst” and sub-prime mortgages took a nosedive. Since sub-prime loans tend to be rather risky by nature, this triggered alarms primarily in the banking/mortgage sector where these loans originated. This first alarm, this earthquake, was duly noted in the news but, at this point, did not cause major concern except to those directly affected by these loans. Those concerned were the borrowers who were defaulting and their lenders who were left holding the empty bag. Others thought it couldn’t possibly affect them.

As the scene unfolded and grew in size and amount, the prime mortgage sector began to feel minor tremors throughout its fault lines. Some of the prime loans began quaking, in addition to the sub-prime loans. As more and more of these loans went into default or foreclosure, several major lending institutions began struggling just to remain afloat. A few major lenders would have been in bankruptcy had they not been able to secure funding to stay afloat.

As the earthquake continued its shaking, roots of corruption and deceit were exposed in the lending institutions. Investors were suddenly made aware that all was not as it seemed with their investments. Their AAA rated investments had been camouflaged and really should have been rated far below that. The earthquake was underway and investors were caught directly in the middle of the tsunami’s approaching path of destruction.

Building deep in the economy was a growing wave, displacing massive amounts of investments, money, and personal security. This deadly wave continues to grow, hidden from view unless one is aware of the warning signs. Most people continue ambling along in their normally structured lives, failing to realize that soon their very existence will be in jeopardy.

What warning signs are people failing to observe? The economy to all outward appearances seems to be sauntering along fairly well with just a few stumbles here and there. What is a slight stumble now and again? If a person was observed walking normally down a street but occasionally kept tripping and catching themselves before continuing their journey, would anyone who might be watching them think that was a strange thing? They would think it was very odd indeed and would wonder what their problem was. Yet, that is exactly what is occurring in our economy and few are remarking upon it.

The sub-prime and prime mortgage markets are merely the tremors of the earthquake, not the tsunami itself. The housing industry was the first victim in the domino effect of economic tremors. Home values dropped, building slowed to a crawl, and sales of existing homes declined. The media mentioned these factors as economic indicators but failed to note that there was a broader issue involved than just housing. As the housing market began drying up, people who depend on this market for their livelihood were affected. This included contractors, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, graders, cabinet makers, millwork companies, etc. The next earthquake victims had been targeted. These victims have not yet felt the full effect of the continuing crisis. As these various service people in the building industry begin feeling the ramifications of a lack of available work, they will stop spending money and begin looking for any job openings. Job openings in their line of work will be scarce so unemployment will swell. This will not necessarily be noted at the various state labor departments since many of these people are self-employed and will not be eligible to draw unemployment benefits; therefore unemployment figures will not reflect the full scope of the problem. Also many of the laborers in this field may be illegal immigrants which will also prevent the true reflection of employment figures.

Further casualties in housing will be those dealing with building materials. Many companies who are dependant upon the sales of building supplies will be gravely affected at this next level. This list will include companies like Lowe’s, Home Depot, and other building companies. Workers in these corporations may have to be laid off due to loss of revenue. These workers will join the multitude of other workers who are unemployed and have no discretionary spending. This could actually add to the mortgage crisis as these unemployed become unable to meet their present obligations.

Looking toward other evidences of a developing tsunami, the US dollar is falling in value which means that inflation is growing. Contrary to popular myth, the definition of inflation is not a rise in the price of goods sold. Inflation is where the government circulates more money into the economy which causes the value of the dollar to drop and, thus, causes a rise in the price of items to compensate for the dollar’s loss of value. So when the US dollar devalues, that is a prime indicator that more money is being released into the economy. This potentially could ultimately lead to hyperinflation where money has next to no value and prices would be extremely high.

Oil prices are already rising to record highs, not only because of inflation, but also because of the issues we currently have in those nations who control oil’s supply. These rising prices will cause people to essentially have less income because they must pay more for the gas needed to commute to work. Their heating and energy bills will also increase, further eroding the situation.

As an example, John D. is a grading contractor who uses heavy equipment for his work. He must pay for the fuel which these machines use to get the work accomplished. However, prices are rising which add to his cost of operation. The people he does grading work for, mostly builders, have lost many of the housing bids they were counting on to survive. This factor, coupled with the rise of John’s prices due to the fuel consumption, causes John to lose work. He has other employees who are dependant upon working for his business but he has no work coming in. Therefore, he must lay off workers, adding to the pool of the unemployed.

John, himself, cannot draw unemployment, but he has no work coming in and must find some means of supporting his family. However, in his trade, work is scarce everywhere and he cannot find a job. The lack of employment does not keep his bills from coming in, so, week after week, he falls further behind.

Meanwhile, his cost of living is increasing. His heating bills and gas expenses have risen by almost a third. John has commercial insurance on his equipment and his vehicles, as well as liability insurance, workman’s comp, etc. These bills are quite expensive, yet he is not bringing in enough income to sustain them. If he cancels them, then he forfeits the ability to continue working as a grading contractor should he receive any calls needing his services.

As this situation lingers, his options become narrower. He falls behind on some of the bills which are coming in, he cannot meet his house payment, and he begins cutting back in every area possible, hoping that somehow his situation will change. John, like many others like him, is not out shopping for clothes, cars, new equipment, or anything else that is nonessential. He decreases his spending as much as he possibly can in order to make it through this difficult time.

In the meantime, the US government is printing more money, manipulating the money supply and causing the dollar to lose its value. This loss in value, in addition to the flood of other rising prices, takes a devastating toll on John’s bottom line while John’s income has dropped to almost nothing.

John says the tsunami has already occurred. However, what he has experienced is merely the tremors of the earthquake. The tsunami will come as the building wave of a multitude of John’s become incapable of buying the basic necessities, much less paying their obligations. This wave will be greater than our government can sustain. People, once productive, will no longer have employment. People, once affluent, will no longer have homes. Businesses will close as they no longer have enough people purchasing their items. The growing number of people without employment will file for government assistance, yet the government will have no one left to tax in order to fund these entitlements. It has already tried to remedy this by printing more money which backfired by driving prices up. The government has borrowed more and more money through treasury notes, bills, and bonds; so much that it can not even meet the interest on these should they become due all at once. People will begin to realize that their treasury funds are essentially worthless, so those who are first to sense the danger line up to get what funds they can out before the money is all depleted.

This is where the tsunami occurs. This is the big wave crashing in to shore, destroying everything in its path. This is where the US government encounters a crisis like no other it has ever had to face. Is it too late to prevent the tsunami? The answer seems to be yes. What comes in the wake of the tide of unemployed, the high prices, the devalued dollar, the economic mess which politicians have brought to this once prosperous nation? The answer to this question is one which this nation should be addressing, but isn’t.

American schools are failing our kids. For evidence see the blatant spelling mistake in the posting from William of Baton Rouge, LA

You know…I have mixed feelings about the dollar.

On one hand, I’m paid in it…and things are getting more expensive. On the other hand it should enable us to correct the trade imbalance in record time.

Moreover that 9 trillion that our goverment owes might have been 9 trillion Euros…but thanks to the devaluation of the dollar…we are really only 6.75 trillion Euros in debt now. Wow. Easy money.

That’s life. Carry on.

Based on economic concept of returns to mean, trees do not grow to the sky, America cannot continue to run ahead of the pack ad infinitum. There must be periods of catch up, like the Great Depression, in order for the rest of the world to make up lost ground. Otherwise you would have a world with Buck Rogers living side-by-side with Alley Oop. However, after the catch up period, America will soon again re-establish its normal superior growth. Of course, this does not make it easy to be living in the period of catch-up.

Bing buddy…
As a fellow optimist prone to bouts of pessimism owing to such things that you and all the posters allude to, I feel for you.

My view is that all these problems are indeed solvable given two things: we get REAL leadership (not necessarily a partisan thing even though everyone makes it that way) and we as Americans are willing to sacrifice for the greater good.

I read an article the other day talking about how the only two ways in which Americans are taking part in civil life these days is by paying taxes and voting; looking at it this way it all becomes clear. If the only perceived relationship to one’s government is by paying taxes then of course you want to pay less and that’s who you vote for, plain and simple.

So these problems can and will be solved as we as leaders of the free world become civically involved, its that simple.

Cheer up mate!

1. A lower dollar isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It means that our exports are cheaper, american products are more competitive, and more american jobs are created to sell things abroad. It’s about time too. Personally I hope the Canadians enjoy their lower prices and shop our currencies back into parity.

2. I strongly doubt global warming will be the end of humanity. We’ll adapt. Life will go on.

3. $100.00 oil is only real bad for the idiots rolling around in SUV’s getting 8-12 MPG. Those of us with small sensible cars that get 30+ MPG are laughing at the rest of you. In the long term, maybe expensive oil will push us to use more alternative energies?

4. Your dollar buys less, but all the clever people are saving and investing in assets that appreciate in value more than the dollar declines. Build a smart portfolio.

5. Credit crisis? Stop living like your entitled to something when you clearly aren’t. Stupid hurts and it always should.

Here’s to get american on track:

National Healthcare System. Single payer. Period.

Reinvest in Infrastructure. High speed rail roads, commuter trains, upgrade the roads and bridges.

Invest more in Education.

Make companies stop moving overseas.

I was once told we have three boxes that we can use to fix our problems. One is a ballot box. The only problem is that the rich control that box so the little guy can’t vote them out. The second is the jury box. You have an issue you take it to court and have a judge decide. The problem here is the rich control the courts as well. This leaves the third box. The cartridge box. When everyone is finally sick & tired of busting their collective asses trying to stay even and getting nothing but farther behind grab your cartridge boxes, stand together and tell all the powers that be NO MORE! Every now and then revolution is good.

Wow, I read a few of these… interesting. Grace from California; I feel you’re right on… America has excelled for so long, and it may be time for us complacent Americans to eat some fresh from the global oven… humble pie!

But Dylan from Bethesda… the tragedy on 09/2001, an inside job? You are an idiot! Please do the rest of us a favor and go get some professional help! And for America’s sake… stay out of politics! There are enough of you idiots already represented!

Well on that note… you’ll have a nice day!

All the money issues don’t matter anyway. Once the North American Union has been formed circa 2010, the Amero will be our nerw currency and the US will no longer exist as we know it. Google Amero if you dont beleive me, it is all very hush-hush right now.

It’s ok. Britney will sort it all out. I’m sure of it.

You forgot about the middle east war and Iran getting nuclear weopons, the certainty of another terrorrist attack on the U.S.,the southeast running out of water(Georgia) in 3-12 momths,people being burned out of their homes in California,most baby boomers lacking the funds to retire, social security and medicare running out of money,air pollution,47 million uninsured.
Is that enough?

Yes. This is manifest adversity on the horizon of America. We must all brace ourselves. Simultaneously, remember that there is nothing more American, than overcoming adversity.

To Allan from Orlando. World might not have ended but Empires have. Once mighty and powerful Romans, Greeks and British are not so powerful now. It could now be the turn of some new great power to overtake USA. Anyone wanna make a guess who it’s going to be?

Sub-Prime woes continue. They effect a total of 10% of all mortgages in the market, and those invested in Securitizations. The only reason why things came to a screeching halt is the large number of speculators that were buying into the hot market and inflating prices. Now that people are not being “allowed” to over-buy, the speculators (about 25-30% of new home buyers in ‘05 and ‘06 according to Mortgage Bankers Association) are getting burned by not owning a liquid asset and having to sell into a bad market.

All the other items are fear related. Our dollar is down, so people come here and spend their money raising the value of the dollar. Interesting edd and flow of the financial world.

Bush will bomb Iran. Pakistan is the epicenter for terror and is now on the fringe.

It is clear that his country cannot handle a major disaster like Katrina or California fires. We are dangerously un-prepared.

Our dollar is a joke and we are the laughing stock of the world right now.

Get our troops out unless you have a definitive game plan.

I am a die hard patriot but never been so scared of the future in my life. I grew up under the WTC’s and lost a lot of friends.

This is a new Era. The era of fear.

We need another Boston Tea Party…we Americans must take this country back from the politicians…seriously…..

Another Boston Tea Party..this is our country not theirs..

Felt the same way about all the bad news and prospects. Funny thing though, when I read history, our times are tame, prosperous and healthy for most who live in the first world.

Let’s compare life spans, the % of people who attend college, the poverty rate, the pace of development in the second and third worlds. Perfect, no way, but a better life for many compared to the bulk of human history.

Time to stop feeling sorry, exaggerating the risks we face and begin enjoying the lives we make for ourselves.
Bing, it sounds like you have been blessed by a great life.

Doug, Shelby Twp., do not kid yourself about the mysteries of 9/11… and do not give our government too much credit. Remember your history. Hitler burned down his Riechstag to invade Poland. Do you have so much confidence in our president, to not think he is capable of the same thing? Do not be a naive american.

Bing, you left out one thing:

This week, there’s a CHINESE satellite orbiting the MOON.

I’m worried too, but you are very very naive if you think 2008 is going to solve this. Do you really believe Hillary or Rudy is going improve this mess?

When emotion takes over, be it panic, fear or a case of the willies, the tendency to act irrationally, especially in relation to financial matters, increases. However, as investors repeatedly experience the same events and see how those events affect the market, they learn to extract emotion and lean on past performance. That past performance is the tendency of the capital market system to continue an upward trend more than 80 percent of the time, despite tragic events that threaten the very fabric of our society.

Consider such events from the past century: world wars, nuclear threats, presidential assassinations, repeated terrorist attacks. All had an immediate negative impact on the stock markets. But, one must widen the lens a bit and look at market recovery. After the attack on Pearl Harbor, for example, it took the market (as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average) 334 days, almost a year, to get back to pre-tragedy levels. After the Kennedy assassination, just 4 days. More recently, the events of 9-11 kept the market down only 59 days and the March 2004 Madrid train bombings, only 29 days. Recovery from these events was relatively short because the billions of daily economic factors took control and overcame the negative effects.

Capital markets are resilient even in the very worst of circumstances. This tells us, that more than anything, market resiliency speaks more of capitalism itself than any other factor. It’s a system that works and because it works to positive effect for all people, they too develop the same resiliency. Knowing the economy will recover and even flourish beyond its former state of being, people move forward.

Bad things will happen. The people and the economic systems will take pause, but it will be nothing more than that. A stop, a start, and then a surge forward. The world isnt ending, it is evolving.

Stanley, you can do better than that. You forgot all this other great stuff from 2007:
- Michael Vick, Pacman Jones, The Cincinnati Bengals
- Barry Bonds, The Mitchell report, and all the exposed steroids users
- Corrupt NBA officiating
- Was there anybody left in the Tour de France not doping?
- A prominent college basketball coach, Skip Prosser, died while jogging
- Iran/Iraq/Gaza/Syria/Israel
- Hillary/Barack/Edwards/McCain and all their zaniness
- and, for good measure let’s throw in those pop culture PR divas Britney, Paris, and Lindsay Lohan

Yes, it has been a wacky year. Can’t wait to see what 2008 has in store for us…

Don’t worry about it – at least we have our “peace dividend”.

Seriously, we survived stagflation, reaganomics, the S&L crisis, Japanese global dominance, and the dot com crash. Not to mention superhurricanes, african killer bees, the cold war, and home grown terrorism. I think we’ll be okay. Just live in the woods six months out of every year to reduce your carbon footprint and you’ll be fine.

I love the the way die-hard republicans like to say “The biggest disaster will be if Hillary becomes Prez”. If this isn’t the classic case of transferrence, I don’t know what is. We currently have the WORST president in history.

Eziekiel 7:19 – 19 “‘Into the streets they will throw their very silver, and an abhorrent thing their own gold will become. Neither their silver nor their gold will be able to deliver them in the day of Jehovah’s fury…”

Daniel 2:44 – 44 “And in the days of those kings the God of heaven will set up a kingdom that will never be brought to ruin. And the kingdom itself will not be passed on to any other people. It will crush and put an end to all these kingdoms, and it itself will stand to times indefinite;

My prediction is that all the markets will turn around in sync…meaning: oil, gold, foreign currencies, and stocks will all head down soon. Why? Once a market gets to over 90% bulls (or bears) it is at that time that it turns around. Look at history. So, we are in for a long slide…Real Estate is the first to go.

To quote Sean Connery in Hunt for Red October: “A little revolution now and then may be a good thing. Don’t you think?” I agree it is easy to look at the dark side of all these issues but in the end it can be a way to force us to change our habits when it comes to spending money and wasting precious resources.

I’m coming down from Canada, with a fist full of Canuckian Peso’s, while they’re hot and buy your asses. Hmmm, wait a minute, you guys don’t actually hold the notes. Maybe I should be talking to someone in China or Saudi about buying assets in the States…

Boy, everyone wants to jump on the fear bandwagon I guess! Okay, the mortgage meltdown is a financial industry problem, but the general economy continues to grow. The dollar is low, but the Euro won’t hold up like this for the long term. Besides, unless you’ve got a trip planned to Europe real soon, you won’t be affected by it. Go to Mexico, your dollar is worth a ton there or anywhere else south of the U.S. As for global warming, well, that is a problem but it will take decades for this to get worked out, as it did for the chlorofluorocarbon problem. So these are this year’s problems and next year there will be others. I think part of the problem is that we are inundated with so much information, that we are being crushed by the amplificaton of all these fears. That is probably more real than the “problems” themselves. Contrary to popular believe, San Diego did not burn down, but the news sure made it look that way!

don’t mean to make you feel downer but from what i have read 2 years ago, we will be in a recession that could only be compared to the Great Depression in the 1930s. any recession caused my a very bad housing market is usually the worst ones. so, just pray, ‘coz we will be so lucky if we can start recovering by the middle of 2009. by the way, the global warming thing, it will just get worst for the next few years to follow. even if no car travelled on earth right now for the next 5 years, it will take a long time before the earth can recover from all the stupidy mankind has done to it.

Since the days of Cleopatra wealth has always been the root of all evil. Greed running wild to see who can have the biggest house, most expensive car, membership to an elite country club, etc. has caused Worldcom, Enron, Conseco, Tyco and numerous other organizations run by greedy, inept ceos’, then and now, crash into a federal prison; Even Osama Bin Laden who possessed billions of dollars crashed into his cave living with the goats and his opium pipe. Responsible people in their respective professions who are instinctively wise know that every mountain has only one way to go after they have reached the summit–down; possibly like a snowball headed for hell.

Bob in Michigan,

Yea, chicken little, the world is ending. Too bad, but what a BIG story it will be for the hysterical, over the top, histrionic morons in the press who have fools like you shivering in their shoes.

Here’s some advice, quit reading all the headlines. It makes you a driveling wimp.

In the words of Jay Leno, “shut up”
Don’t just bring problems to this blog, I want solutions or I’ll fire you. (sound familiar?)
Look, have a drink, make a little love and tell your kids you love them.
Oh, and have that mole on your arm checked. Um, your cholesterol levels are way too high too.

Economic growth has been largly driven by energy growth and technology. Technology has been primarily the application of abundant energy to new processes and products. However, at this time, peak oil and climate change have arrived and the availability of energy is declining. Within the next few years, we will enter a post industrial era with severe constraints on food and energy. Re-tooling the towns to have local food farming and walkable, ‘bicycleable’ access is most important. If towns are configured to eliminate the need for individual cars and use efficient mass transit systems such as light rail and electrical trolly cars then the impact may be more tolerable. In fact, a revitalization of towns and small cities would be the source of a new economic opportunity. We have to figure out some way to convince city planners to consider this concept. They are busy designing bigger, better roads for more and more gasoline powered cars. Did anyone tell them about Peak Oil? Maybe we need to.

The economic crisis is meaningless, in comparison with the silence of the bees.

as long as baseball players make their 100M salaries and people keep supporting them, the world will be fine. as the commissioner says, ‘there has never been a better relationship between players and managers’……what about the fans bud?

What, me worry?

Yep, it’s all looking pretty terrible. But with new leadership, America is still better placed than any on earth to address the problems.

Debt crisis? Write it off and move on, don’t do a Japan. It’s mainly foreign money any way.

Oil crisis? Put in a gasoline tax and watch venture capitalists build a new industry for electric cars.

Global Warming? Put in carbon trading and watch the efficiencies accumulate, China and India will follow.

Iraq & Afghanistan? Go home, and look to your borders, not foreign battlefields. Afghans and Arabs have waged war on each other since before George Washington and they always will.

The dollar? A cheap dollar means US manufactures can finally compete, buy American and holiday at home. Learn to say ‘Bonjour’ to the visitors.

Bing, I’m with you on this one. I’ve never seen a situation where so much was stacked against…way against…the stock markets. And I’ve invested in stocks my whole life. But I don’t own many right now. They’re headed for a fall.

Did anyone mention the bird flu yet? If it mutates and goes human to human with current fatality rate – a real possibility – it will trump everything else. Yep, we’re not in Kansas anymore.

The next superpower? The E.U. of course! O.K. so it is going to take literally a miracle but brace yourself because that’s what’s coming. You don’t have to be religious the see the eerie resmblance to the EU and the empire that was a mixture of iron and clay (fragments of the former roman empire united but not cleaving together as one) foretold in Dan. 2:31-35.

http://www.keyway.ca/htm2002/birsuper.htm

These are outstanding times – no doubt about it. More opportunities than ever before. Huge problems and huge opportunites. Very exciting. Way better than dead.

You are right on! Unfortunate, but true.

It could be worse though, my buddy has these same concerns….and is being shipped to Iraq to fight the religious war.

These are interesting times we are going through and are yet to see. Currencies are consolidating, which will inevitably lead to a globally unified currency. And where greed has been the basic driving force of our world since the dawn of man, it is also this greed that will be the last thing to be shed before the great change of our time can take place, the age of global Utopia. It’s interesting to see that this change starts with America, the most advanced nation in the world. If America is leading the way, it is leading all of us to this resolve. Almost logical isn’t it? With this in mind, in every change ever recorded in history; there has always been war or conflict. Where evil has prevailed and continues to prevail, (greed, corruption, deception), evil can only prevail for so long until it totally collapses in on itself. So for us to shed this animal instinct (greed), the times ahead will be tough and troubling as this will be the greatest feat mankind has ever encountered. But in the end we as world of united brothers and sisters, not a world of divided nations, will prevail. And to those who get to live through this, (which I think will happen in the next 2 to 4 decades), should feel privileged to live through such a time. Because it has never happened before on this scale, and it will never happen again.

Yeh, and I remember writing a report in 4th grade about how we were all going to be living in bubbles under the ocean by 2000 because of the air/water pollution and acid rain – but here we are. It’s $$$ media to scare everyone,not to mention it might get the media the liberals they want back in power with next year’s elections. You’ll get over it when they succeed and then start telling us how wonderful everything is with Hillary. You’ll believe that too Stanley!

What about religious fanatics with misdirected agendas to force everyone to believe as they do. No, I’m not talking about Islamic extremists! I’m talking about the “Christian Right”(whatever that is). God is going to punish us with all kinds of plagues (stock market crash, bird flu, mad cow, “super bug”, acid rain, etc.) because we aren’t doing what they think we should do…Right? They’ve got to make all the heathens start going to church so the world will be at peace and stuff. True worship cannot be forced. Hmmm! I’m religous enough to know that if my hopes and fears are entrusted to God, I won’t have to worry about all that madness.

I think a lot of things start to make more sense if we reconsider the reported inflation statistic. We’re told the inflation rate is around 3%, but I’ve read several economists suggest that the inflation rate is about 10-12% right now, and has been over 7% for the past few years. This would mean that “flat” wage growth is really negative wage growth, prices for goods are going up much faster and this coincides much more rationally with the declining dollar. I can tell you right now my income is falling behind my expenses, even though I’ve hardly even bought new clothes in 3 years. My favorite brand of tuna has gone up from 69 cents a can to 99 cents a can in the past two years. Sure, this is anecdotal evidence; but how many people have the same kinds of anecdotes?

We can thank the one REAL bastion of socialism in the U.S. economy for much of this: The Federal Reserve. We argue for free markets but turn around and hand over our entire unit of exchange to central planners. Make no mistake about it, the Federal Reserve and all central banks are central planning, command-and-control economics. Under Greenspan and Bernanke they have sought to push theoretical, numerical growth to ultimate heights, allowing Wall Street and their fellow bankers to cash in and cash out. But this isn’t REAL growth… it’s all just numbers that have become disconnected from reality.

Think about what it means to have a unit of exchange backed by nothing but debt – instead of a real asset. Think about what it means to have our unit of exchange under the control of central planners. Think about the ramifications of a downward spiraling currency as inflation rages; the reality masked by bizarrely calculated government statistics (for example, see “hedonics” on Google). The subprime crisis stems directly from this. The credit crisis is a direct result of this. Most-people’s rapidly weakening buying power is a result of this. The declining dollar directly contributes to the rising cost of oil ($100/bbl may seem like a lot, but $100 ain’t what it used to be). Volatility in the stock market can be seen as an outgrowth of this. The real estate bubble and the resulting un-affordable homes are another result. It doesn’t end.

It’s probably too late to fix it, though I think Ron Paul is our singular last hope of doing so, if it’s possible at all. The result? Play the game, suck the system dry, and go live like a king in Latin America. I’m done being Mr. Nice Guy or trying to get anyone to fix all this Bulls**t.

Well this is the age of turbulence… but at the end everyone will be the pilot of their own plane. Some land on the beach some in the sea.

Parsa

The peaks keep getting lower, and the valley’s keep getting…well ,lower. I agree and so do most of my friends. Either the media is doing a great job at scaring me and things really aren’t that bad (doubt it) or we as a nation are on the back side sliding down from our peek into a serious, sad valley, the depth of which, I am scared to think about. It keeps me from wanting a family and trying to stay liquid so I can move on a dimes notice… more like a half dollar these days. I am trying to find a way to save my money in foreign currency in a foreign account instead of a normal American savings account with dollars just like you said. At least then my money won’t be vanishing in front of my eyes with inflation that the fed keeps saying is only 3-5% which is a complete lie. They even admit their numbers exclude gas and food! Why?! I still have to buy them so show me the inflation numbers WITH them included!!!!

Not the end of the world, just the end of the Republican era.

End of the world? I’m NOT a alarmist, but you sure have to wonder what is really going on in the world? It’s amazing to think that Muslims, Jews and Christians, although disagree on so much, ALL are looking for an end-time ruler. Each religion views this person differently. Muslims thinks it their 12th Iman and long awaited savior, the Jews think it is their Messiah (Savior) and the Christians think it will be the Anti-christ. In the Christian view, the Anti-christ will be a very charistmatic, articulate person that will speak of peace & safety, but in the end, it will be just the opposite. All you have to do is watch movie trailers and the international news to see how well this role is being setup. Everyone is looking for peace and if someone that is articulate to deliver that message, maybe teh world would just follow along. Maybe there is more to this Christianity stuff than you think?

We also happen to have a war of three civilizations based on the three major world faiths coming to a head–and it all centered around Jerusalem–and mideast oil.

The “war on terror” is nothing but that….and it isnt going away any time soon.

Its a death-struggle.

Meanwhile…China and Russia rising…and the past greed of US bankers for ever higher profits will devour many.

It was predicted. Matthew 24; Ezekiel 38 and 39.

It feels like 1978. Wow, there is so much misinformation in these posts! Global Warming is real, only the extent of human involvement is uncertain. We will adapt. As for energy, there is plenty available to us, between sun and surf and geothermal and wind, we’ll figure it out. We are losing genetic diversity way to rapidly. It’s accelerating and we need to stop it. It’s like a brick wall where each species is a brick. Punch out to many bricks and natural cycles start collapsing. It takes a long time to make a new species. Yes there is a bomb on wallstreet waiting to go off.. it’s called level 3 assets and all the big financials have way too much of it on their balance sheets. Six more months to work through it, at least. We may have a short recession, or at least slowed growth, which we’ll grow out of in a year or two – there’s a big supply of money out there and it’s hugely expansionary. It’s just bottle-necked right now due to SIV/CDO/derivative fears, which have a real basis, and will take some time to work through, but will be worked through. Some bigwigs like Paulson are really scared and trying not to show it – their actions speak for them. This is more than just a few bad loans. As for politics, Bush isn’t an idiot, he’s just half-smart, and that’s actually worse. We do need to back off in the middle east, we’re making it way to easy for the radicals to build a support for extremists. Bush made so many classic errors in the Iraq war I wonder if he actually did read a little history, and merely kept forgetting to read the conclusions. The Clintons seem unprincipled to me, but this republican voted against Bush twice because I’ve long recognized his inadequacy. It will take quite a while to undo the damage he has done to the scientific community, the human community, and the American community. Republican candidates in 2008 look pretty clueless as a group, I hate to say. Voted Dem recently out of desperation, may have to again. The politicians aren’t really trying to screw us little guys so much, it’s just that they need to in order to fund their re-election… and a lot of them don’t fully grasp the connections. Tax code and corporate governance need improvement, but I’m not sure how we get that fixed. As for the dollar, well, it really does not correlate to the market… you can do some correlation co-efficients if you like. Social Security is a problem, no doubt, but its not bankrupt… it just may have to be reduced by about 25%. Or we could just tax a few rich people/companies who aren’t paying their share (“barely legal”, by David Cay Johnston)and we’d be in good shape. Finally, these certain predictions about the markets are a bit silly. We don’t know if we are heading into an inflationary period (as increases in tips and gold would suggest – hedge fund and pension money seems to be leaning this way) a deflationary period (nobody is banking too much on that yet it seems, except a vocal minority hoping to hit the jackpot – though it’s hard to be sure with China buying up our treasury bond market) or somewhere in between (a lot of folks are in this basket also.) Ok, I’m going back into my gopher hole, I still have to work tonight.

Cash all your money,
invest in third-world real-business activities,
perhaps build an apartment or two,
you won’t regret it.

You see, the one which is being burnt up fast is the wall street, not the main street. If you promote the main street, the wall street will follow.

The oil prices are finally reaching a level that will inspire innovation in this country. Its about time. Please hit $6/gal soon and it’ll put US startups focusing on alternative energy in overdrive.

The Federal Reserve is a whore, the White House – a pimp, the Wall Street – a “John”, and they are having a party! At our expense, of course.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com

The chickens are finally coming home to roost. Frankfully, we’ve had it too good for too long. I akin American to the sinking of the Titanic. Arrogance and pride always leads to chaos and disaster. Our entire economy is nothing but a smoke and mirrors ponzi scheme that is run by a select few. The Federal Reserve answers to nobody but itself. This is just the tip of the iceberg too. The real pain comes next year into 2009. I fully expect this country(if not the entire world) to be in a second Great Depression by that time. I hope you all enjoyed the party while it lasted.

Bing,
I have been reading your posts for some time. Many times the comments posted here kind of reflects my views so never took time to post comments.

This one is to appreciate for all the thought provoking articles you post and make gray cells go tangential. Keep up the good work.
2008 will be a watershed year for the world I guess. $ may turnaround lets hope although the outlook given to us for our budgets $parity doesn’t sound optimistic.

USA may make a turnaround, I sincerely hope. First women president after 230 Years!!!, we did in have one 25 years of Independence, Israel did too within same time of course those were the watershed events for betterment. May be thats the event that may turn America around. Lets See. Yes, it took ages for UK too.

Regards
Karthik, Bangalore, India.

Inflaltion is held low for several reasons: 1. The dollar is devauled by most currencies. As a country we buy oil (price has risen to compensate for the devalued dollar). 2. We alos buy huge amounts of manufactured goods from China. Hong Kong has an official policy of pegging its (Hong Kong Dollar) to the the U.S. dollar. Mainland china has an unofficial policy to peg its currency. Thus holding down U.S. inflation. If China lets its money float, Monday moring everything we buy at Walmart will be +30%. That will really be inflation… and it’s coming. 3. The U.S. government reports inflation with fuzzy numbers and terms like “Core Inflation” which of course excludes oil and housing. Can you imagine… in the past 5 years housing has tripled and so has oil. But it doesn’t even cause a ripple in the inflation numbers.

To the Hillary haters or anyone who thinks any democrat in the WH is going to be a total disaster: You obviously think our present commander in thief is doing a terrific job. That automatically disqualifies you from rendering any judgements on anyone for the rest of eternity. I mean, you apparently think going back to budget surpluses and responsible, functioning government is going to be the end of the world. Just think what you’re reaction would be if Bill Clinton had spent almost a trillion dollars on his own private little vendetta or squandered trillions instead of investing in America. The reason the dollar is in the toilet is because we’ve borrowed 3.5 trillion and counting since idiot has been in office. I guess your principles are locked away for safekeeping only when repugs are in office. All of the problems outlined in the article have either been ignored, denied or mishandled by this administration on a scale never before seen in this country and some people have the nerve to attack people who actually have the intelligence and solutions that have worked in the past to deal with these issues.

The EU will never become an empire. There are headlines made about every six weeks about how the non-industrialized countries with post-socialist labor environments (i.e. Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal) can’t get on board with countries like Germany, Netherlands, and Denmark that are fostering atmospheres of professionalism and a free-market economy. Italy’s economy will come to a screeching halt in the next 10 years if they don’t stop paying for crooked politician’s payrolls who are still cashing paychecks as they wait to be indicted. The Euro’s growth against the dollar will be slowed once they stop expanding their markets. Unfortunately, that will continue for the next 10 years and the Eastern European markets are primed and motivated. Global warming is a problem no one can ignore now. It needs to start with individuals. Somehow, modern man survived the ice age, but if the temperature drops below 75 degrees, some people bitch and moan relentlessly. The economy in the U.S. is a result of over-borrowing and over-consumerism. It’s time to pay the piper and those that didn’t play it safe will be a victim of natural selection. Plain and simple.

I remeber taking my U.S. CPA (accounting) courses up here in Canada 5 years ago and the instructor, an American, predicted the decline of the U.S dollar. He mentioned that if Americans were really aware of what was going on, there would be rioting in the streets.

Do you realize that the lowly Canadian dollar (“the Loonie”) has gone up about 75% in the past 5 years? Do you have any idea of how poorer you are as a nation compared to the rest of the world?

It all boils down to a basic supply and demand issue – there are simply too many U.S. dollars floating around out there, and not enough demand.

I don’t mean to preach, but when you spend a half-trillion dollars on a war, you are going to have to “pay the piper” – either you do it the “direct” way by raising taxes (…which makes everyone poorer), or you do it the “indirect” way by printing money, which, again, makes everyone poorer (via the devaluation of your currency). Either way, you’re worse off.

My fellow Canadians and I would like to thank all of you for putting up a big “for sale” sign. America is on sale, big time! (You’d all better catch-up on your hockey rules and 3-down football!)

Hey Bing…this is OUR chance to finally default on all these Treasury bills & US Savings bonds that so much of the world owns. It would be a perfect response to the lack of their desire to back us in our wonderful adventure in Iraq! It truly is a “beautiful world we live in”…(Devo)

America was built on manufacturing. Jobs created to produce quality goods, to sell to USA and the world. “Made in USA with pride” was a logo that meant something, a quality well made product. Not from China, not assembled in Mexico, not outsourced to India or Malaysia ( you get my drift)

Think of it “Made in America with pride” *see small American flag*

As a Canadian, I have a growing “attitude towards Made in China” lead poisoning, poisoned pet food, products that “might” go past warranty before breaking/malfunctioning,recall after recall on human food. and so on.

Meanwhile, all the while, the money accumulated (in China) is buying Treasury bonds. “What is wrong with this picture?” At this point, they dont need to fire one bullet to take America down…simply remove all the money in treasuries, all at once. There goes the economy.

When I shop in a department store, say Home Depot, I see “Made in Canada, Made in USA, Made in Japan” thatis what I buy, even though more expensive. Often, these goods are superior to the crap coming from China.

If more North American citizens, BOUGHT goods made here, then Corporate America would take heed, and not outsource the jobs. Corporate America just wants profits… and isnt that an ugly way to screw North America.

Well in USA it may look bad right now. But in ASEAN in 1997/8, it was worse – Asian financial crisis, Indonesian govt collapse, worst political tension between Singapore and Malaysia, worse haze in decade from forest fires. We thought it was the end of the world!

The fact that there is so much worry in the market makes me optimistic. The best time to buy is when the last guy (guess it’s you, Bing) has thrown in the towel.

Yes there is a mortgage crisis and it is called a 30yr amortization schedule and we all have been held hostage by it for decades. Do what rich people do and learn to get out of it by leveraging time and other peoples ” the banks” money. Keep 20 years of mortgage payments instead of giving it to the bank, educate yourself to financial freedom.
http://www.u1stfinancial.net/mortgagezero

Unfortunately you are right, dude. The world IS ending…

I live in India, our bad still beats most other countries good!

That said, 47 million Americans are not insured for their healthcare.

Oh, 1 billion Indians are not insured either.

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

Try getting out of bed on the other side in the morning.

This is all planned – pick up the bible and read revelations! The signs are there and you need not worry except for one thing and that is preparing your soul! There is a brighter light at the end of this for some!

Paranoid is the best summary of the positions of course with some justification! The negative news cycles today paralell those in the mid 1980’s real estate mess, the 1990’s banking mess and yes 2007 is on a more grand scale. Rational economic persons under stress are unpredicatable particularly by rational economic math driven models. Today like in prior slumps we need to take heed, lower expectaions, go to some cash positions and be nimble in investments and active in political affairs. The future is still bright even when behind some tough weather you just have to be careful where you sail.

Hey Bing?

Lighten up. Relax. Global warming has happened before and will happen again after the coming Ice Age of 2015.

Brazil, don’t worry about them. They are too busy ripping each other off at the expense of their lame government who is too busy ripping the people off.

The falling dollar is good. It means lower rates and tourism and who a thunk it, exports?

What we had all better worry about is our own country. Slowly and surely we have allowed it to be purchased on the free market by countries that will eventually own all of our land, stocks, manufacturing and not to mention will have us solo SUV drivers by the short hairs with gas at $5 a gallon. It’s going to happen.

For 30 years we stupid Americans have poured our money into buying petroleum from countries who have in turn bought us. They all are now realizing that the way to bring us to our knees is through black gold and our addiction to it. Meanwhile they continue to buy us and flood our cities with their immigrants who take our jobs, bring in their drugs, destroy our welfare, social systems, force all of our institutions to offer bilingual information and basically suck us dry.

We set ourselves up for this by electing politicians who care more about their personal wealth agendas than the people who elected them. These guys are controled by the banks who used to be the modern day loan sharks but what goes around comes around and they all will collapse soon. Sugprime greed, credit card preditory marketing, sqeezing the middle class out is in the grand plan. My grandfather rode a horse, my dad drove a ford, I drive a Mercedes, my son will ride a horse.

And there is WWIII coming. This is the worst news on the horizon. By 2012 it will all blow up ad there will be a big battle in a valley mentioned in the Bible located in Iraq.

So my suggestion to my fellow Americans is to pray for themselve, their family and our country. It’s too bad but it’s inevidable. And praying to restore the values that estaablished our great county is the only hope. “In God We Trust.” What has happen to this?

I have a 7 year old son to think about. It seems the best thing I can do is buy a isolated place in the Ozarks, stock up, live off the land and wait for the storm to blow over.

God Bless America.

Actually, I’m quite optimistic. I’m 100% sure that the sun will rise tomorrow and that all these issues will get resolved. But here is the problem, they will get resolved at millions of people’s expense. That’s the issue the optimists never really seem to grasp. Optimists keep on reminding us that the US has survived many hardships and has always come out stronger. But they fail to mention all those millions of mothers who wept the loss of their sons.

The other issue that Americans fail to grasp is that of the environmental impact. Everyone is focusing on global warming when it just can’t be proven 100%.

What can be proved is that we are raping our forests and destroying our envrironment in the name of growth. Shortages are begin to become apparent: water, oil, etc.

Global population over the next 50-75 years should growth from 6B to 9B. Today, we are already stretching our resources with maybe 1-2B of people living the middle class life. Imagine 1B more people vying for the same resources. And the way we North Americans have structured our economy, forces us to depend on gorwth in the developing world. Our stock multiples are priced for future growth and boomers’ retirements depend on it too.

We will destroy our planet before we fix our problems because very few want to see the big picture. Americnas are in the wrost postion of all to this reality because they have set themsleves up in such a way that this destruction is not as visible in their backyards. Most of the visible environmental destruction, to feed their consumerism, is happening in the developing world.

The only way we can avoid all this is by developing an economy less dependant on material goods but since humans are attracted to things that are scarce this will not happen until Mother Nature makes a statement.

You know why the Democrats are in trouble? Because they’ve been settling for the last seven years. They’ll vote for anyone as long as he or she is not a Republican (as the usually intelligent Bing just demonstrated – he’ll vote for a yak as long as it is a Democrat). That’s like a drowning guy grabbing at anything to stay alive.

I also consider myself a glass half full kind of guy. As much as I love the environment and hate what we are doing too it (still don’t like Al Gore’s powerpoint slides) my TRUE FEAR comes from the Middle East.

It is only a matter of time before those nasty nuclear weapons so many nations have fall into the wrong hands. Pakistan anyone (who is running the show there), Iran? what happens when both Isreal and Iran decide to nuke it out? How difficult would it be to smuggle one of those bad boys into New York harbor in a container ship. That is as close as it needs to be.

Don’t mean to pile on the gloom but things can get much uglier than an economic depression. Hopefully Hillary will now how to handle these international issues better than Bill.

Matthew 24:21 “ for then there will be great tribulation such as has not occurred since the world’s beginning until now, no, nor will occur again.”

Things can and will get a lot worse. Now is the time to heed the warning. But most won’t.

Matthew 24:38 – “For as they were in those days before the flood, eating and drinking, men marrying and women being given in marriage, until the day that Noah entered into the ark; 39 and they took no note until the flood came and swept them all away, so the presence of the Son of man will be.”

Wow. I just read through the past two days’ worth of comments, and made a list of the various worries people have. In no particular order:

Global Warming.
Political instability among (potentially) nuclear powers.
The falling US dollar.
The US Federal deficit.
The US national trade deficit.
The US real estate bubble.
The US subprime lending crisis.
The rising cost of oil.
The looming Social Security and Medicare shortfall.
Globalism and outsourcing of US manufacturing jobs.
Lousy US public education.
Millions of US citizens uninsured.
Global scarcity of fresh water (southeastern US, Australia, middle east)
Bird flu.
SARS.
Is REAL inflation actually higher than 3%?
The disappearance of bees.

Quite a list.

Still, I don’t think we need to stockpile water and bullets, just yet.

On the upside, I think I like these two quotes the most:

“How many times has the world actually ended?” (Allan, Orlando FL)

“Look, have a drink, make a little love and tell your kids you love them.” (On, To. On.)

I think we have played a game of roulette for decades and the loaded chamber has finally landed. For thousands of years mankind lived off the land and enjoyed a simpler time. Life was about living, and now the industrial, credit, consumerism, travel, insane lifestyle is coming to an end. The “American lifestyle” is NOT normal! Thousands of years prove it, and shortly a thousand more will reveal it again.

Like a wounded and dying dangerous beast, this “modern society” will not pass without a serious lashing out and howling. It will be a fight to the death, but eventually, the simpler times will come again. After billions have died.

SG, nice compilation!
When it comes down to it, all I care about is how fast I can turn about $50 million, and then convert it into gold and hard assets. The rest of the world can rot until they’re begging at my feet for food, shelter, and a small silver-piece to be tossed in their direction.

A lot of these comments are absolutely correct. Unfortunately, only history will tell us which ones.

“So how many times has the world actually ended?” (Alan)
And I reply: Let’s see, for man? About twenty catastrophes back. “How so?” You say. “Where’s the proof?” And I say: “Very little of it left. Which is precisely how we know it did.”

And yet people are still having kids…there friggen morons!

Feeling the same way, you covered almost all the bases. Just need that lunatic in the White House to bomb Iran to stuff everything up.

The oil problem can be solved here: http://www.callowayengines.com
But oil will not let it happen.

The Doors song “This is the end” keeps playing in my head. I have been in the real estate industry for 35 years and seen markets go up and down. We are in a down cycle and the market will work it’s self out if the government doesn’t mess it up. But then the government caused the problem in the first place. Sub prime loans translated is government said banks are discriminating in not making loans so make bad loans and now look at the mess. Also FED Mr Greenspan let interest rates stay too low too long and caused the housing bubble.

So what does 2008 hold, go back one year and look at what the experts were saying about 2007 and see how wrong their predictions were.

The only thing that is certain for 2008 is that it will not be what we expect.

As to Oil at $100 ! Maybe this will cause us to finally solve our dependency on foreign imported oil.. I do not think so. The price will retreat just enough for us to continue to be oil dependent and do nothing. The oil industry will continue to run the world.

Global Warming! The Credit Crisis! High Oil prices! This sounds very familiar. Remember SARS? I believe Time had a pretty scary cover story about it a few years ago. What about Y2K? My computer works fine. How about the Atkins diet? The Macarena? The slap bracelet? Hyper Color t-shirts? Oh. Those were just fads. As for global warming, has this earth not seen more than one ice age according to the same scientists who say we are in a stage of global warming? I’m pretty sure there were no cars or factories when the aforementioned ice ages ended. So how did the ice melt without millions of Chevrolets? Maybe the apes we supposedly came from drove Camaros. Those hairy bastards! Why have they stopped evolving into humans anyway? Seriously we don’t want excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. No one benefits from that. Except trees and vegetation. And all they produce is oxygen. Which counterbalances the excess CO2. And puts us right back where we started except with healthier trees. Hurry everyone it’s time to be an American and throw billions of dollars at this crisis. We don’t want healthier trees. We want to run out of them so we can blame companies for cutting them all down!

Let the housing market crash. Dumb people have been living way above there means thanks to margin lending (credit). Homes are no longer affordable for working families and now these self centered yuppies want the conservitive government to save their poor investments. I say its payback for the smarter working people

John from Brooklyn, NY might be able to spell, but he can’t provide any factual information, only insults.

Two quotes came to my mind as I read the column and comments. One was “We have nothing to fear but fear itself” and the second was “The only thing that’s keeping me going is knowing I’ll be dead soon” (I’m 49 and make good money but I can’t afford to insure myself AND my kids). When F.D.R stated the first quote, it was AFTER America had reached down-and-out destitution from the Great Depression which, of course, hit the fan under the tuteledge of the great conservative, Herbert Hoover. Only the most Fascist of today’s conservatives could still deny that that depression was caused by anything but the government’s enabling of the rape, pillage, and complete mismanagement (or geedyness and stupidity) of Wall Streeters and the industrial “players” of those times. The second quote was, I think, from either Kurt Vonnegut or Tom Robbins (Authors who wrote things called books). Regardless, the quote occurred to me because for 78 years now we’ve been taught to think it can’t happen again. Just look at the blatant imbeciles and crooks we’ve allowed to achieve and hold onto power today — our living large “players”. What a bunch of schmucks. The incompetence and maybe even malevolence of the leaders of our institutions and corruption of our systems has been transparently obvious for at least the last 40 years. New quote from me: “There’s nothing we can do about what we all know is coming except blame, blame, blame ourselves!” We’ve become an incredibly ignorant and reckless society.

Wellll….I guess you could add illegal immigration, the porn culture, the likely collapse of social security and medicare, poisonous imports from China, our failing and inadequate infrastructure, a government that has been bought and paid for by corporate interests, the growth of Islamo Facism, Russia going renegade, failing public schools and the disappearance of the honey bee. On the upside the French like us again.

Global warming..we are in it and may never get out of it without HARSH consequences to our economy.

Our Economy IS falling apart. Due to US overspending on Everything. Primarily houses most people cannot afford. Then, we EXPECT them to go up in value each year to fund our excesses; but, only so many can AFFORD them. Now we see who REALLY can afford them.
Energy..we should have put the brakes on years ago and gone to alternative, cost effective , clean fuels. We did not. EXPECT to pay $5 a gallon for gas…soon.

WE, own our Little house, have no debts but our 2005 Saturn ($8000 balance owed at 3.9%) We have a combined VESTED pension in a government back pension fund of $2.6 million, if we live to 90)$300,000 in deferred 457 accounts and $60000 in cash and precious metal account.

So am I sorry for those who expect to be saved in the subprime and cannot send their kids to college or know where their next meal is coming from? Your guess….

We have not live high on the hog, just normal lives, few treats, but feel secure for even the worst…when it comes…not if it comes

LIGHTEN-UP PEOPLE!!!!

With the American household averaging 2.2 children and the European household averaging 1, the world population should probably be in check in the next 20 years or so…

The world is not ending. Fox News anchors are not fortune tellers any more than they’re scientists. Rising gas prices only increased our budget by $50 a month and we live a relatively comfortable middle class life.

The threat of global warming is a farce. Volcanos produce more CO2 in one eruption than mankind has ever created. Furthermore, the Earth’s average temprature fluctuates over time. 30 years ago, the hype was global cooling.

It’s easy to pass laws to protect us against a potential problem when there’s no answers; but what you really get is sacrificed freedom based on hysteria and ignorance. Such was the mentality of the dark ages. Environmental laws need to be repealed until we can get real answers. That’s the way the constituton works.

OK I’m off my soapbox. If one thinks that the Earth is overpopulated, try having a child. You will find that there’s plenty of room in your town for him/her. These things are under God’s control, and I don’t think He would object to making the world a little more fun by having kids. We need children to remind us that we were children once. We got through it by knowing that there are just some things that we can’t control. Just practice some efficiency and common sense.

I believe that global warming is a farce. I know. What does this jerk know? He’s not an educated scientist. The real culprits are irresponsible politicians and news reporters. The fact remains that global warming is only one theory in a very large scientific community. Theories can only be theories if they can be second guessed. There have also been thousands upon thousands of published scientists that have easily refuted this concept for a few reasons:

1) The temprature of the earth fluctuates several degrees up/down over time. This happens natually.

2) Although the concept is correct about C02 depleting ozone, we have overlooked the fact that volcanos have easily been known to produce far more ozone than mankind ever could in one eruption. Eruptions happen every few seconds on this planet. Just because we can’t see the eruptions doesn’t mean that the bubbles don’t float to the surface.

It’s easy to pass a law to protect us from a potential danger when there are no answers. What really happens is restricted freedom based on hysteria and ignorance. Such was the mentality of the dark ages.

What we really need to do is repeal the global warming laws until we can get real answers.

Politicians like to pander to the ignorant few while it’s broadcast nationwide, creating the impression that it’s a bigger problem than reality says. This creates hype, hype causes panic, and panic gives us a reason to allow people to restrict freedom for the “greater good.” In reality this politician was only telling you what you want to hear so he can rise to power. Isn’t that scary?

Instead of discussing problems in Global Warming clubs, look at all of the scientific data. Global warming has been mostly debunked by reputable scientists, yet we are allowing people to slowly encroach on our freedom based on a single theory in a large scientific community.

As you gaze back onto the last few years of events the one thing that stands out is this countrys’ rapid ethical and moral demise. It seems as the bulk of society ages and readies to retire they become increasingly less cautious or caring and greedier than ever before.

There seems to be no conscience left in business, government, education, or anywhere in any institution. As each generation reaches the height of their power they consistently top the last generations err in judgement and there is no end in sight.

An immediate worry I have is war with Iran. It wouldn’t be a worry if we were well prepared and equipped to deal with it but since the USA has been compromised (weakened) on several fronts it is a grave concern. It is sincerely heart breaking to think my generation and all others following will have the least opportunity available to them since the inception of this great nation because we will be too busy trying to rebuild and recooperate from “preemptive preeminence”.

First and foremost, the posts on this site are awesome. They are well thought out and articulate.

I do take issue with one poster, Posted By joe briggs ma : November 7, 2007 12:33 am
“And yet people are still having kids…there friggen morons!”
I would just have to say, thank goodness for us “breeders”… My husband and I were born in the late 60’s, you know those tumultuous times where our leaders were getting KILLED for their beliefs. And our parents, they were born in the midst of the Great Depression… From Wikipedia,
People cut back their expenditures by ten percent, and a severe drought ravaged the agricultural heartland of the USA beginning in the summer of 1930.
In the spring of 1930, credit was ample and available at low rates, but people were reluctant to add new debt by borrowing. By May 1930, auto sales had declined to below the levels of 1928. Prices in general began to decline, but wages held steady in 1930, then began to drop in 1931. Conditions were worst in farming areas where commodity prices plunged, and in mining and logging areas where unemployment was high and there were few other jobs… And guess what my grandparent were, Minors and Farmers, and guess what they kept doing, having kids!!!
To my grandparents and parents, thank you… Thank you for not letting world events determine when or if you should have children. Imagine if we all stopped having kids due to world political and financial crisis… Neither you, nor the poster, nor I would be here to wonder the marvels of cell phones, electric cars, hydrogen fuel cells, the Internet, etc. etc. etc. Do we have some challenges ahead, you bet. We should not fold like “lawn chairs” and roll up in the fetal position, we need to tackle this crisis head on…
Long live the “breeders”…

let’s see….. america was built on manufacturing…. therefore it should be a manufacturing center for the world forever????? d’oh!

the loonie is rising in value compared to the greenback……. yeah, and i remember maybe 20 years ago, vacationing in yellowstone, where every tour bus disgorged a few score of europeans or japanese who jumped out, took photos and jumped back on the bus…. our currency was cheap then, too, and we were a tourist mecca…. and if you timed it well between buses, you could get some nice photos of the yellowstone falls, old faithful, etc…..

the implosion in the housing market? nah, some parts of the country are suffering from flippers and overbuilding, and that always happens in bubbles… go back to the internet bubble and y2k…. and the world didn’t end, either……

[aside... none of anything resembling a "concrete prediction" by nostradamus, the Bible, or anyone else.... will come true.]

oil will drop to about 70-80 a barrel and gasoline will drop to maybe 2.50 a gallon [usd... sorry euros and loonies]…. any shortages are demand-driven, not supply-driven, like the prior “shortages.”

global warming is a crock… see MY site at http://www.plusaf.com/soapbox/globalwarming.htm , download some pdfs and click some links…. the data really don’t support it, but get this…. my “little epiphany” of a week or so ago…..

the media are in the business of selling EXCITEMENT, not facts, data, nothing but excitement…..

where else will they tantalize you with chair-gripping hints about the 11:15 WEATHER report???????

enthusiasm is what you bring to your life, your job, your love… excitement is a six-year-old running around screaming…. [after more than a few minutes....]…. if you can filter the excitement out of the media, there’s virtually nothing there for you to get enthusiastic about….. shoot your tv….. read the comics in the paper……… assume that ANY scientific “facts” reported by the associated press will be reported erroneously or in a misleading fashion.

robert a heinlein is my hero: “human beings are the otters of the universe… we just want to live our lives and have fun.” all the rest is nonsense.

oh, yeah, ayn rand and john galt, too…..

“That’s great it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane and Lenny Bruce is not affraid.” And neither am I.
How will you know when it’s the end of the world as we know it? You will wake up and go to school or work just like any other day. Nothing will seem the slightest bit different than on any other day. And that is exactly my point! The end of the world AS WE KNOW IT comes everyday and with each new day a new beginning. Nothing is guaranteed in this life and perception, NOT truth is what is seen as reality. Who is to blame for this? The list is long and I gotta go walk the dog, so to simplify things let’s blame the usual suspects. The media and our parents. That should just about cover it. But seriously folks……….. go for a walk in the woods( dog optional), tell your spouse, or significant other how you really feel about them (yes, good or bad), DARE to turn off the T.V. tonight ( I know, this one is gonna be tough), but above all don’t forget to BREATHE. That last one is essential. And to MR. Bing………..”lighten up Francis”

I’m a glass half full guy, so to all the global warming concerns, I say look at the bright side. With the ever increasing cost of heating my home, maybe a little warming isn’t such a bad thing. People need to lighten up a bit . I’m all for people being more cognizant about the environment and their relationship with it, hey, while we’re at it why don’t we take a look at how we treat those around us as well. I’m sure we alll could stand a little warming there as well.

Re: your Subprime article today. You realize your little friend at Countrywide is at the helm of THE CAUSE of the subprime tumbling, do you not? Ask him how their option ARMS are performing & how many buyers are in the marketplace for those types of loans. I imagine it’s about the same number as subprime buyers. (Buyers, a/k/a investors)

Is it just me, or are we as Americans a little too full of ourselves? Especially with some of the posts that I’ve been seeing here.

I highly doubt that the signaling of the second coming of christ is because OUR stock market is having a hick-up. And Yes, there’s also battles in the middle East at the same time. But WOW… What a shocker… There’s fighting in the middle east. When hasn’t there been?

I’m a Christian man and would love to see the second coming of christ, but do I think he’s coming because oil is at $100 a barrel Or that Citigroup just flushed billions down the toilet? No… get over yourselves.

We do have some major problems going on in the world, and a large part of it has to do with the current American administration. Which, by the way is our fault as well… You don’t give a monkey a loaded gun then act shocked when he shoots the trainer.

Listen, Global warming is real… but will it end the world in 2010… 2020… 2030? Probably not. But, it is happening and we need to take the appropriate and responsible steps to curb it right now. People are willing to invest time and money now, for the future… Just think of this as a real estate investment or a trust fund for your children.

What I’m saying is that Humans are resilient. Adapt and overcome. We’ve done great things in the past and will do great things in the future. Just remember to spend, live, and vote responsibly…

I’ve read many of these and there are quite a few to be read. Many seem to blame our problems on the current administration. I have to say this but virtually all of the problems started with Bismark. Now, I bet most of you don’t know who he is or what he did that started all of this.

Bismark was the ruler of what is now known as Germany. Many of the things he did setup Germany to become a world power and ushered in the Great War (also known as WW I) and WW II. The fighting that goes on in the Middle East has been going on for centuries and virtually every president has stepped into that war from arming the Isralies to protect them from the Arabs to arming the Arabs to protect them from the Russians (and to curtail them getting a winter warm water port).

To many Arabs, it’s quite logical for them to not like America (and Europe for that matter) as we arm and support the sworn enemies. But, we all arm and support them which makes us a strange bed fellow to them also. Add to that, the winners of WW II took some of the land that the Arabs call theirs to make a home for their sworn enemies. It’s easy to see why they wouldn’t like us (that’s us as in all the Allies and not just Americans) much.

Now, several of you have mentioned cycles. We’re overdue for a bust cycle actually. We had a very long boom cycle at the tail end of Reagan, all through Bush Sr., and almost all though Bill Clinton.

Prior to that during the Carter Administration, we had rampant inflation and gas prices that would be equivalent to $3.00+/gal if you adjusted it for today’s dollars (I’m talking about 1970s and very early 1980s). So, there’s a repeat cycle right there.

Let’s talk about the weakening dollar and all this outsourcing that was mentioned in several posts. Most people believe the end of America has come because of this. Let’s not forget NAFTA, when it was passed and by whom. NAFTA paved the way for this outsourcing which paved the way for the global economy to form. It’s natural that business will seek out cheaper labor but that labor seldom remains cheap. When those people who are in 3rd world countries start making more money because these American businesses are willing to pay more to them for the better laborers, those very same people will start looking at all the cash (currency name or type is irrelevant here) and they look at the card board box they live in, they will start thinking that they want better living conditions, better places to shop, better items to buy. All of that requires investments and on large scale. Check it out. The emerging markets stocks and funds are outperforming almost everything else and that is why.

But, this leads to another item that most people don’t think of. All this construction requires manpower and lots of it. Check the largest construction companies in the world: they’re all reporting backlog in the billions of dollars and they are reporting projects all over the world. What are they building you ask? They are building: power plants, roads, bridges, shopping centers, condos, power grids, need I say more.

All of those aren’t built on a few thousand dollars. A road often costs $1 million US dollars per mile and that cost doesn’t change just because it’s in India and they don’t use dollars or China and they don’t use dollars either. Still costs the equivalent of $1 million US. And, a lot of that work is being done by US construction companies.

As for unemployment and the fact we see them time after time report that it was better than projected. Well, all those construction projects require manpower and where do you think the labor comes from? Those very same companies are taking anyone that is qualified and are even hiring people they wouldn’t have hired 10 years ago.

So for all the Chick littles out, the sky is not falling. Quite the contrary. The opportunity for profits beyond your wildest imagination are out there and they’re waiting for you.

Recession??? Bah! Depression!

The world is not ending – it is just moving forward without the USA at the top of its food chain. That is a hard pill to swallow for most of us overly-arrogant, flag-waving, spoiled American SOBs. Capitalism can only continue in an ever-expanding base, and globalization has about run out that base. So hard times, a revised economic system (Amero), and accepting that we are not always #1 will ensue.

As my grandmother would say – what a silly man you are Bing.

On the US: seen it before. The collapse in 1987 and in 1997. Similar articles appeared.

On Global Warming: the hypocrisy of Al Gore’s private jet aside nobody can tell me what caused the 1km of ice above where I write (Toronto) to have melted in the last 10,000 years. Those damn Red-Indians and there SUV’s I guess.

On the hatred of the US: clearly most of the pundits have not lived in a really rotten country with a really crappy leader. They would be more grateful for the US and Bush.

On the 9/11 consipracy theorists: seek treatment.

On the population explosion: problem is the kids are not being born in Europe and the US they are being born in the Middle East, India and China. There they do not give a fig for Global Warming or pollution. And much politics is driven by powerplay and envy. GW is a political tool that has replaced communism as a way of attacking the West

Bing wish I could meet your shadowy self in person. Bet you a $1,000 bucks that by next summer the liquidity crisis will be a distant memory.

I read your articles and i do like most of the things written. But please, understand that we cannot master all subjects knowledge, so if you don’t have enough knowledge and information don’t risk yourself stating misleading information to other readers that might learn something innacurate from you.
The bio fuels do not come from the rain forest. You must be messing up with soya plantations. Actually the bio fuel is a less harmful energy source than coal, oil, etc.
We put faith on you and believe you are not going to be careless in future articles.

The World isn’t ending, it’s just the human race that is. Nothing to worry about, calm down, I mean we’re all going to die anyway so it might as well be sooner rather than later. I know the world seems depressing and dull, and that’s simply because it is, and has always been, and 2008 will be no different to any other year. Bye, then.

Must have been a down day for you. The Earth is in an inter-glacial warm period. Climate gets variable and then goes back to ice for a couple of million. Yawn. U.S. collapses? So did Persia, Rome, Germany, Brit Empire. Yawn. So move and learn another language. Your grands’ did. Worked for them. Leaders are all scum? Read history and divide great leaders by the total number of leaders. Yawn. Just do your best to take care of yourself and family. Then friends. Then TRY to be a nice guy to everyone else. Seems to have worked for millenia and probably will for a couple more years.

welLll i dont no if i could believed the scintist or no becouse i dont want nothing to happen im really scare i dont want to died know;[please god has to help use out ;]