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Monday, June 9, 2008 at 12:36 pm
I’m going to invoke my standing as a bloviating faux pundit, along with the rest of the gang, and offer a vision of what might happen going forward on the price of gas. In so doing, I am probably contradicting not only myself but also every other wheezebag who is now opining on a situation nobody but a few sheiks and corporate oil executives really understands. But what the hell. I can’t afford to do much but sit here and think, anyway. So here’s what I come up with. First of all, it’s clear to me that the price of oil is irrational and opportunistic, based on what the producing countries and their running dog global distributors think they can get away with. As evidence of this, I will offer the fact that gas is now significantly more expensive in neighborhoods where the companies think they can get away with it; affluent towns and portions of cities where people have more money. In poorer places, prices are lower. I don’t care what the rationale is, or what lies we are offered. This indicates to me that somebody with an eye on demographics and property values is calling the tune. On a more cosmic scale, the price is also going up because there are semi-logical “reasons” that the bad guys can invoke via the analysts, media, and other clueless mouthpieces, to “explain” and “justify” the ongoing, heedless gouging. After Katrina, a Chevron station I used to go to went from $1.89 a gallon to more than six bucks a gallon in one day, two dollars more than the then-prevailing price. Because they could, I think. After that crisis eased, they brought it down to $4 or so, and it’s never been less than $3 since. In this way, a specific incident was used to jack up the deal and make the most of it in perpetuity. That’s how they roll. That is actually a microcosm of the entire situation. Katrina taught them they can get away with just about anything, at least for a while. It was a lesson they have not ignored since. This has nothing to do with supply and demand. Has supply diminished by 300 percent? Has demand increased exponentially? No. They’re doing it because they have seen they can. And they’ll keep on doing it until a very powerful whistle blows, one, perhaps, that only they can hear. And that, my friends, is what I believe is going to happen, possibly as early as right after Labor Day. Todays paper says that rural America is feeling the pain of $4 gas now. The cities have been there even longer. Red and Blue will merge. The American people will do what they do, and begin hitting the people who will truly feel the hurt: politicians, corporations. Business deals with producing nations will dry up. The ability of American companies to share in the windfall will be looked at. Arms deals will be scrutinized. Whatever can be done in the invisible corridors of intercourse between big oil and international affairs will be effected. The inaudible dog whistle will sound. And suddenly – like magic! – prices will ease. My guess is that we will settle at around $3.25 a gallon for a while. There will, of course, be a lot of reasons given why this was rational, a product of market forces and blah blah blooey. But we’ll know why it happened. Because they had to. Then next summer will come and the whole thing will mysteriously begin again. Whatever they can get away with, they will. Unless, of course, somebody’s got a better idea. I still think I’ll see $10 gas in my lifetime and much sooner than I originally thought. You are right in that they (oil companies, refineries, the mom & pop gas station, oil producing countries) will do whatever they can, as long as they can to get away with the highest prices possible. Part of my going green is that I’m now saving $75 per week on my communte switching from the Yukon to the Geo. All just to stick it to ‘em (and be a better greenie). I find it interesting that S.A. comes out today and says that they believe the prices are unwarranted, too. A half hearted attempt to ’stabilize’ at a higher rate? Hmmm… Posted By Jessica, St. Cloud, MN : June 9, 2008 2:16 pm
You may be absolutely right. The whole oil/gas pricing this is so full of twists and turns we will probably never figure it out. So there’s only one solution: get out of the game. Become independent of any country besides the U.S.A. for oil, and that will take some hard decisions. But as long as we are jerked around by OPEC and the other mental midgets, we’ll be puppets on the end of a string. Posted By Robert Neville, San Antonio, TX : June 9, 2008 3:28 pm
The blame points to who enforces the “ANTI-TRUST” legislative “LAWS”–not rules or guide lines. “RULES and GUIDELINES” merely give way to mumbo-jumbo and hocus-pocus we wish we could get a focus. Helter skelter, summer swelter, fuel energy vaporized the links to our comfortable shelter. Posted By Bob Shelby Twp. Mi. : June 9, 2008 5:28 pm
have an idea; let’s just sell Wheat for $134.35 a bushel (the Current July Light Crude Price) to the oil producing countries that can’t seem to grow their own food. We can eliminate Farm subsidies this way and get the price of gas back down to a buck. After we suck to Middle East dry, we can drill ANWR and see how they like $1000 per barrel oil. Posted By Ratman, Lancaster, Ca. : June 9, 2008 11:05 pm
Thank goodness media companies don’t raise their prices based on what someone is willing to pay. Posted By Greg, Chicago, IL : June 9, 2008 11:08 pm
3.25 a gallon , never gonna see it again, China is building 19 refineries & 280,000 barrels per day, India is building the world largest refinery, any slack in the market is spoken for. Dump your Hummer and buy small fuel efficient cars or start walking to work/walmart. 3.25 gas is like the unicorn, everybody talks about it but nobody will ever see one. Posted By Jack Hammond Canada : June 10, 2008 4:15 am
Be glad you don’t live in UK where the price is now heading north of £1.10 a LITRE therefore roughly $8.80 a gallon, yes we pay high tax on it but we have good transport alternatives, I for one when in london like to cycle to work or at worse get on the tube. I do hope transport companies take advantage and begin to offer commuting alternatives to Americans, although to change the mindset may take years. Posted By Mike, London : June 10, 2008 8:36 am
Good post, Herr Bing. I’d not be so quick to pin all the blame on the titans of industry, though. Even they are subject to the laws of supply and demand. Peel back the spculators, the shieks and executives, and all the other petro-miscreants, and you’re still left with a rotten supply-and-demand picture. New sources of crude oil aren’t being found fast enough – end of story. And the stuff we still have is dirty, heavy and hard to get at. It doesn’t take a big drop in energy supply or a big increase in demand to cause a big swing in prices. All that’s needed is for demand to slightly exceed supply, as it does now. Such is basic economics. Speculation and such have made the situation worse, no doubt. But the energy crisis is not just smoke-and-mirrors, liable to disappear when the grown-ups are back in charge. Posted By theassistants : June 10, 2008 8:39 am
I’d like to thank Greg from Chicago for the single most hilarious inside comment that I’ve received in a long time. Posted By Bing : June 10, 2008 9:22 am
Who are “they”? Producers? Refiners? Ahmed, who owns the local Exxon station down the street from my office? Producers with access to low-cost crude are making buckets of cash. If you’re someplace where you can stick a straw in the ground and get high-grade crude out for about $3 a barrel in costs, you’re flush with cash. If you’re sitting on the rights to oil sands and your costs are $80 a barrel to get the oil out of the ground, you’re finally making a return. In a few months, you might not be, if crude prices ease. The price for all those barrels is set by whatever the last barrel cost. Small drops in consumption will drop world prices, which is worrying a few Sheiks so much that they announced yesterday that they’re working to drop prices just enough to keep everyone driving Hummers. If you’re a refiner, you’re caught in a margin squeeze. Your raw material costs have gone way up, but your selling price has not. This will change over the next few months, as gas prices inch higher, and crude prices ease, but that’s just my opinion. Ahmed has to charge more for gas because his gas station sits on real estate that costs money per square inch. He could get by charging less if his station was on the edge of town in Podunk, Nebraska. Exxon made about 10% profit, more or less. 10% of a s#!tload of cash is still a s#!tload of cash, but it’s not an abnormal level of profit, like Microsoft makes. Speculators can and do alter short-term prices, but can’t influence the long term price much. We don’t take delivery, so it’s hard to have much influence on the supply and demand equation. My wife would be rather unhappy with me if a tanker pulled up at the dock and wanted to know where to offload 50,000 gallons of whatever. There is increasing global demand for fuel. As others have commented, India and China have dramaticaly increased production. Increased demand = increased price, until supply catches up or demand eases. Add to this mix the fact that several large developing nations are currently subsidizing fuel purchases, which also inflates global prices. Currency also comes into play. Contracts are also typically written in dollars, and dollars are worth less. If the dollar drops 20%, I want 20% more dollars for my oil. So would you. All of this hits people harder out in those flyover states, where putting gas in the pickup truck represents a much larger share of the monthly budget than it does elsewhere. All of this would be moot if we rode donkeys to work, and donkeys are cool. Posted By Leroy Jenkins, Podunk, NE : June 10, 2008 11:19 am
What I’d like to know is why $3.25 per gallon is really $3.259. Do you know of any other product sold and marketed with an extra penny always added to each unit of measure? How have they been getting away with that for so long? Posted By Mordy, New York NY : June 11, 2008 7:59 am
Leroy is right: many other century-old companies make 10% margins – GM, Ford….oh, wait….they don’t, because they have solid competition. But many very large companies make 10% margins – companies such as WalMart….oh, wait, they don’t either. No, there is no vast right-wing conspiracy here. But a little more competition would make a “commodity” producer get something more like commoditized profit margins in the 1-3% range. Defending 10% margins on a 150 year old commodity company is very silly. Posted By RKC, Chicago, IL : June 11, 2008 10:47 am
RKC: You can put your money where you like, but if I can’t expect a 7%-10% return, I’m not taking an equity position. Using mismanaged firms like GM and Ford as examples is very silly too. Posted By Leroy Jenkins, Wall Street : June 12, 2008 5:16 pm
RKC – I do not believe that defending oil company margins is silly. Many commodity companies that have “competition” make more than 10% margins. Monsanto, for example, a 150 COMMODITY company, that has “competitors”, has 17% profit margins, and to top it off, had over a 100% increase in profits last year. Do you really think that just because a company doesn’t have the so-called “competitors” that it must mean that they have great margins? There are many large “commoditized” companies with margins greater than 10%, check it out. The reason Walmart has those margins, is because of the area of business they are in, they don’t necessarily deal with just “commodities”. The definition of commoditization, according to investopedia, is “when a product becomes indistinguisable from others like it and consumers buy on price alone…” Many items could fit into this category, not just oil and food. Posted By Greg, Minneapolis, MN : June 12, 2008 5:32 pm
Talk about high gas price. Posted By kathy wesley me : July 7, 2008 6:18 pm
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Stanley Bing
Stanley Bing is a Fortune columnist and best-selling author of business books noted for their wisdom as well as their sharp, slightly acrid sense of humor. He is also the only writer on business and the workplace who still puts on a suit and tie and goes to do battle with the dragons that breathe fire at corporate America every day. This blog captures what remains of his brain after it has exploded in all other directions.
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Bing hit this one right on.
We all know the summer price of gas has nooooothing to do with the fact that more people drive greater distances in these months.