According to a new survey conducted in late January by Charles Schwab, 85% of all independent advisors believe that the recession will be over in a couple of years. Two or so, they think. Perhaps a little more. Or less.

Some believe that it will be over by the end of this year, but not many.

Others think it’s going to be bad until late 2011, although they are in the minority, or they were in late January.

Most think it’s going to be two years. Or thereabouts. Which is probably what they’re saying when they’re advising people who presumably listen to them.

Who are these people? That’s what I’d like to know.

Because according to my personal survey, conducted with the inside of my brain pan six seconds ago, 97.2 percent of non-stupid people have stopped listening to anybody’s advice, particularly that of those who offer any.

72.3% of all respondents have stopped believing that the Market is driven by any metrics at all. 82% of those have come to the conclusion that a bunch of scared lunatics have taken control of the machinery of capitalism and that there’s no sense to what these losers may do on any given day.

Interestingly, 83.4% of all intelligent people have decided that numbers themselves are weird little creatures that are about as meaningful as a plate of chocolate pudding and just as solid. Of those, 71.3% figure there is no way that anybody knows anything in a world where Warren Buffett had the worst year of his career.

And speaking personally? 100% of me wants to slap somebody when they offer a view on what other people should be doing with their money.

I know what I’m going to do with mine right now. I’m going to have a turkey sandwich. After that, I’m not making any predictions for the rest of the day, other than declaring that there’s a 100% likelihood that I’m going to be ignoring any putative punditry until 2012. Perhaps a little sooner. Or later.

I’ve been in business for about 5,427 dog years and at no time during my career has there ever been a day when somebody wasn’t worried about what some security analyst was writing about us. This factoid stretches over six iterations of four separate companies, with enough corporate permutations to confuse a particle physicist.

“Bob Weasel of Finster-Koolaid says we’re off on our guidance and won’t make our EBITDA for the quarter!” the CFO will write while forwarding the latest analysis from Weasel, who long ago decided to take a negative turn on our stock because it differentiates him from the other analysts and gets him quotes in the Wall Street Journal.

“What are we going to do about it?” people will cry. And of course there’s nothing you can do about it. Weasel has every right to his take. Its can’t be corrected, either, even if he’s wrong, because Weasel’s opinion is based on a deep understanding of the marketplace, our business sector, and the economy.

Ha!

Weasel and his kind are, as I am sure you know, generally found to be employees of banking institutions. Real banks. Investment banks. Naturally, you know, the research side is (relatively recently) well-separated from the side that actually invests in stuff, but still. Who’s going to argue with Finster-Koolaid? It’s a division of Omnivorous Potentate, the largest investment bank in this brane of the cosmos!

A few years ago, the former CEO of a former form of a former corporate entity that morphed into one of my prior corporate entities appeared at a conference of these geniuses. Granted, Bob was a loser. He had bad affect. Still, the company had a lot going for it. But the security analysts didn’t like Bob’s style. So within 30 minutes of the close of his presentation, our stock went down like Eliot Spitzer. 

People went off to Froggies Tavern early that day, I can tell you. Because those guys ruled. And we drooled, for a long time afterwards. Then a new guy came in that people liked, for whatever reason. And our stock went up. Same company. Actually, slightly worse off, if I remember correctly. Go figure.

So now we look around us and the very same guys who were telling us why we sucked hose water, boy, are they drinking from the other side of the tap. All the great intellects who said people should divest this or that, or that such-and-such would never grow, or that management needed a kick in the kiester… they represent firms that are hawking up huge chunks of lung every day!

Where were these Einsteins when their companies were lending more money than they had to sub-prime borrowers? Were they any less shocked than the rest of us when the piper came to call?

In retrospect, who the hell were they to tell anybody what to invest in, or any corporation what they should or should not do? And why is anybody still listening to any of them?

I want to thank all you guys for a terrific day yesterday. As one of you pointed out, I got up on the wrong side of the bed and felt the end of the world was at hand. Some of you agreed with me. Others didn’t. Still others were very jolly about the whole thing and WELCOMED the end of the world. I like that attitude. A special hats-off shout-out to the fellow who commented to a prior post and nominated Dracula as one of his favorite saints. Fangs very much.

But seriously, today is another day and the sun is bright and shining in the newly-minted sky. Actually, it’s raining here in New York and quite chilly, but you know what I mean. You can’t live your life in full awareness of Armageddon every day, right? Interest rates are coming down! Hedge funds and their managers are getting knocked around like whack-a-moles at a carnival. The truffles just came in to my favorite expense account restaurant. Life is good.

Maybe best of all is how America is snapping to, joining the rest of the world in its vital, highly-competitive, can-do, anything-goes spirit on the global playing field. In that vein, I would like to offer the first annual Mr. Cool Poisoned Toothpaste Award for Competitive Global Business Ethics to the banks and other lending institutions who are now foreclosing on the homes of defaulting debtors.

They win this soon-to-be coveted prize not so much for the foreclosures themselves, but for all the extra fees they are piling onto the future occupants of Chapter 11 who committed themselves to ARMs and are now falling down on their promise to pay the piper now that the piper has raised the interest rate on their mortgage.

In an article headlined “Borrowers Face Dubious Charges In Foreclosures” the fearsome Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times writes:

“The amounts can be significant. Late fees accounted for 11.5 percent of servicing revenues in 2006 at Ocwen Financial, a big servicing company. At Countrywide, $285 million came from late fees last year, up 20 percent from 2005. Late fees accounted for 7.5 percent of Countrywide’s servicing revenue last year. But these are not the only charges borrowers face. Others include $145 in something called “demand fees,” $137 in overnight delivery fees, fax fees of $50 and payoff statement charges of $60. Property inspection fees can be levied every month or so, and fees can be imposed every two months to cover assessments of a home’s worth.”

There’s much more. I highly recommend a thorough read of this one. It makes you feel that this great nation of ours can compete with anybody on the world stage, at least in certain things.

So buck up, everybody! There is no fate but what we make, right? And we’re making it every day. Have a good one.

1. When I wake up in the morning, the first thing I do is:
a) Make love to my spouse.
b) Lie in bed and think about the day ahead for a few minutes.
c) Grab my blackberry and check my email.
d) I don’t wake up in the morning. I wake up at night.

2. For breakfast, I generally like…
a) A muffin.
b) Eggs and bacon.
c) Whatever the guy I’m taking to at my power breakfast is eating.
d) Six cups of coffee and a Prozac.

3. At a business meeting, I talk…
a) 35 percent of the time. I think listening is important.
b) 50 percent of the time. I think give-and-take is what it’s all about.
c) 65 percent of the time. I’m there to get something done and I need to push it.
d) You’re beginning to get on my nerves.

4. I am angry…
a) Almost never. What’s the point? All that does is hurt myself and impede business.
b) Now and then. The world is full of buttheads.
c) A couple of times a day. I can’t help it.
d) Now.

5. Everybody has enemies, people who help to define you by the fact that you hate them and everything they stand for. How many do YOU possess?
a) None. What’s the point? All that does is hurt myself an narrow my list of potential allies and customers.
b) A couple. One died last year and I really miss having him around to hate.
c) I have a list of about ten or so people. Sometimes people drop off and make room for new ones at the top.
d) I have a couple of friends I don’t mind having dinner with. The rest of the world can go %*&# itself.

6. There’s been a lot of news about China recently, focusing on its business practices in a negative light — poisoned toothpaste, lead paint in children’s toys, tainted dog food and the like. What’s your attitude to that?
a) I think it’s kind of shocking, actually. How can people do such things, even for a profit?
b) I think it’s deplorable. Naughty Chinese! They should have their butts kicked.
c) I think you have to understand their culture. They’re in the beginning stages of capitalism, and this laissez-faire behavior is not unlike that which characterized, say, the old West. It’s every person for himself. Anything goes. They’ll come along and institute standards later.
d) We’d better get in there and take over their economy fast, before they do it to us. The rest is just bulls**t.

7. I love…
a) My family and my little schnauzer, Peppy.
b) My collection of antique pens.
c) The smell of restaurant bacon in the morning. It smells like victory.
d) The feeling I get when I have just humiliated my best friend at golf.

8. I would consider a person “rich” if they are worth…
a) The question itself is deeply flawed. Money alone cannot define wealth.
b) Ten million dollars ought to do it.
c) One hundred million dollars and access to corporate perks.
d) Twenty billion dollars, six houses, twelve cars, a bodacious spouse or two, six thousand virgin acres in Mexico, a personal 747 and the body of his enemy bricked up in his wine cellar. In fact, have you seen my wine cellar?

9. When I think about growing my company, I like to consider:
a) Responsible growth from within.
b) A balanced plan of acquisition and divestiture.
c) Acquiring my nearest competitor and merging our two great companies into one giant and unbeatable behemoth.
d) Buying everybody in my entire industry. Those who will not be bought must be driven out of business. All trace of the companies I acquire will be expunged from the earth! And I will reign supreme!! Hahahahahahahaha!!!!

10. When I die I would like be remembered as…
a) A good person who was loved by his friends, family and colleagues.
b) A talented person who made the most of his or her gifts.
c) A dangerous and scary person who kicked butt during his life and left a bunch of grieving people behind who revered him.
d) If anybody dies around here, it’s going to be you, Bud.

Give yourself 1 point for a), 2 for any b), 5 points for any c) and, of course, 100 points for any d) answer you might have found appropriate. Yeah, the scoring is screwy. But the truth is, either you’re a killer or you’re not. If you are, my hat is off to you, and my resume is in the mail to you.

If you’re not, I’ll see you for drinks some time next week, okay?

As something of a bulls**t artist myself, I was particularly appalled and amused by the story in Friday’s USA Today about Lynn Brewer, a former Enron functionary who, according to the story, has passed herself off as a fallen executive star of the failed energy conglomerate and carved out a huge career in the ethics industry.

According to the story, Brewer, known to her associates at Enron as EddieLynn Morgan, basically whipped up a convincing alternate persona, feasting on the piety and credulity of those in the business of scolding business for fun and profit. She has even been invited to speak to the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo. Working in her favor in this effort seems to be the fact that she can easily be confused with genuine whistle-blower Sherron Watkins, a confusion she apparently did little to dispel.

As we head into this weekend of thought and reflection, I highly recommend a deep read into this little saga. We all of us pretend to be something we are not when we enter the world of business. Some take it to such highly entertaining heights, however, that they provide some kind of lesson for us all.

If you have any idea what that lesson might be, please don’t hesitate to let me know. In the meantime, I’m preparing for National Boss’s Day tomorrow. Ah, what a festive occasion that will be. Or else!